After a Rough Beginning to the Year, Experts Forecast the Future of Air Travel in 2024

In 2024, it appears that more people are determined to fly more often. This was the trend until two significant in-flight incidents marked the year's start: the Japan Airlines aircraft that caught fire following a runway collision, and the Alaska Airlines door malfunction that resulted in the worldwide grounding of Boeing 737-9 Max jets.

Despite some apprehension travelers may have following these events, air travel is projected to hit an “historic high” this year, with an anticipated 4.7 billion air passengers globally, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This number surpasses 2023’s total of 4.4 billion and the pre-pandemic figure of 4.5 billion from 2019.

Airlines have rapidly returned to pre-pandemic connectivity levels,” stated Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, noting that “the recovery pace has been remarkable.” Looking forward, 44 percent of respondents in a recent IATA survey indicated they plan to travel more in the next year compared to the last.

The situation in the United States mirrors this trend, according to Helane Becker, an airline analyst at TD Cowen. She highlighted that passenger numbers at Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints increased by 11.6 percent in 2023, averaging 2.3 million travelers daily—expected to rise by at least 5 percent in 2024. Without additional TSA screeners, this could result in longer wait times at airports. During peak times, “we will frequently witness days when 3 million people pass through airports,” Becker noted.

How will recent safety concerns impact operations? What does the increase in travelers mean for airfare this year? Will we face further operational issues similar to the disruptions that affected holiday travel over a year ago? We consulted experts for their insights. Here are their forecasts for air travel in 2024.

Air travel safety is under scrutiny following Boeing 737-9 Max groundings

Following a number of close calls at airports last year, air safety standards were already being examined in 2023. However, the new year began with two major incidents, including the Boeing 737-9 Max scare and a crash at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, bringing the issue to the forefront of news coverage.

After swiftly grounding 171 Boeing 737-9 Max aircraft in the United States and in countries with direct flights to the U.S., the FAA announced on January 12 that it would enhance its oversight of Boeing's production processes. This decision followed the FAA’s formal notification to Boeing regarding an investigation launched due to last Friday’s incident where a passenger door plug was lost during flight on a Boeing Model 737-9 MAX.

It remains uncertain how long the 737-9 Max planes will be out of service. Last week, United Airlines reported discovering loose bolts on their Boeing 737-9 Max fleet during inspections, raising further alarms.

The Alaska plane differs from the Max 8 version of the 737, which was involved in two fatal crashes leading to a nearly two-year global grounding of the Max series that began in 2019. However, since it's part of the same family of aircraft, this incident has raised concerns among travelers regarding its safety record.

John Goglia, a former National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) member and aviation safety consultant, stated that the situation could have been far more serious had the Alaska aircraft been cruising at around 34,000 feet.

Jennifer Homendy, head of the NTSB, announced in a news conference following the Alaska Airlines incident that the agency will thoroughly examine maintenance and safety records to investigate the cause of the accident, a process that may take some time. She also reassured the public about the safety of air travel.

She emphasized, "We have the safest aviation system in the world," noting that the United States "sets the global standard for air safety."

The concerns arising from this incident are unlikely to dissipate quickly, and air travel safety will remain a prominent issue for travelers and the industry in the coming weeks and possibly months.

Airlines must address operational issues—or face repercussions

No airline has suffered more from flight disruptions recently than Southwest, which, despite its massive size, experienced significant problems in late 2022 due to a weather crisis exacerbated by its outdated technology, including an inefficient crew-scheduling system. The airline faced severe consequences, including a record $140 million fine from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) last month, impacting both its finances and reputation.

However, the repercussions for passengers extend beyond just one airline: $90 million of the fine will be allocated to a fund for compensating passengers who experience delays of more than three hours, with expectations that this three-hour rule will be implemented industry-wide. Consumer advocates view this as a sign of a more stringent approach to airline service issues that are within the carriers' control, such as insufficient staffing to meet published schedules.

Southwest CEO Bob Jordan informed the Wings Club in New York last month, just before the DOT announcement, that the airline has invested over $1 billion in new systems designed to improve crew management and flight operations during adverse weather conditions. "Moving forward, our focus is on operational excellence, and we won't cease our efforts until we've achieved it," Jordan stated.

William McGee, senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, remarked, "The takeaway is that neglecting product investment can lead to severe consequences." He anticipates that the current DOT leadership, which he describes as "the most pro-consumer in U.S. history," will be increasingly proactive regarding air passenger rights in 2024.

In its efforts, the DOT has indicated it will investigate airline loyalty programs for potential "unfair and deceptive" practices, particularly in light of the increasing complaints regarding changes to award levels needed for ticket redemption, among other issues.

Don’t expect much relief on airfare

In 2023, as leisure travel returned to pre-pandemic levels, consumers experienced significant fare increases, often exceeding inflation rates—by as much as 15 to 20 percent in some markets—primarily due to a lag in aircraft deliveries resulting in reduced capacity.

As we approach 2024, demand for flights continues to exceed available seating, and some experts predict this trend will persist throughout the year.

Michael Derchin, a veteran Wall Street airline analyst who writes the newsletter Heard in the Hangar, noted, "Airfares are likely to remain elevated [in 2024] due to the fundamental principles of supply and demand."

"Supply is limited and demand is strong, and the tight supply is due to factors completely beyond the airlines' control," he stated. Major aircraft manufacturers continue to face supply chain challenges.

Additionally, while most U.S. airlines are profitable, their costs are rising. Although fuel prices have stabilized recently, "the largest expense for airlines by far is labor, which constitutes about 40 percent of total costs, and this year has seen a notable wage increase" due to successful negotiations by airline unions for improved pay and benefits, according to Derchin.

The key takeaway: If you find a good deal on a flight, take it. Prices are unlikely to drop.

Additional and hidden fees are here to stay

Common sense would suggest that if travelers are paying more than expected, they should receive better value for their money. However, Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst and co-founder of Atmosphere Research, cautions against that assumption.

Ancillary fees, including baggage charges and extra costs for seat selection and other services, which have faced significant criticism from Congress and the Biden administration, "are here to stay," he stated. He mentioned that Alaska Airlines is increasing the fee for checking a bag from $30 to $35. "This fee hasn’t changed in a while, and other airlines are likely to follow suit," he added.

Increased international flight options

On a positive note, travelers can expect more flight options to international destinations in 2024. "Major airlines are expanding their international routes, focusing on restoring seasonal capacity and introducing new flights to the Pacific region," noted TD Cowen’s Becker. She also highlighted the so-called Taylor Swift effect: significant events that drive airline traffic. Keep an eye out for flights filling up for the Paris Olympics this summer and to locations on the superstar’s international tour this year.