Hurricane season has begun: TPG’s guide for travelers facing storms

We’re just a month into hurricane season, and the Caribbean experienced its first Category 5 hurricane on Monday — the earliest for such a storm in this season's history.

After intensifying to a Category 5 storm post-landfall on Grenada's Carriacou Island, Hurricane Beryl is predicted to move west toward Jamaica. The National Hurricane Center reports that this historic storm, with sustained winds nearing 160 mph late Monday, is anticipated to arrive in Cancun, Mexico, on Tuesday.

Beryl is the second storm of this hurricane season, which officially commenced on June 1. The first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, tragically claimed four lives in central Mexico on June 20.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecasted a hurricane season above the normal levels this year. Therefore, even a small storm can significantly disrupt your vacation plans.

So, what should you be aware of now that hurricane season is in full swing? Let’s delve into when to expect hurricanes and how to safeguard your planned trips.

2024 Hurricane Season Forecast

On May 23, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasters estimated an 85% likelihood of a hurricane season that is above normal for the Atlantic, with a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. These predictions for 2024 are notably less favorable than those made in 2023, when the same experts predicted a 40% chance of a near-normal season in the Atlantic.

In 2023, NOAA recorded 17 named tropical storms and 18 hurricanes across the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific oceans.

This year's tropical activity report is heavily influenced by La Niña and above-average ocean temperatures.

In their assessment, meteorologists anticipate a total of 17 to 25 named storms, an increase from the previous forecast of 12 to 17. A storm earns a name when it reaches winds of 39 mph or higher. Out of these storms, eight to 13 may develop into hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or more, including four to seven significant storms that could escalate to major Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 mph.

NOAA assigned a 70% confidence level to its predictions, consistent with last year’s rate.

"The forthcoming Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated to experience above-normal activity due to a combination of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the emergence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, diminished Atlantic trade winds, and reduced wind shear, all of which create favorable conditions for tropical storm development," NOAA stated in its announcement.

When does hurricane season occur?

The Atlantic hurricane season commenced on June 1 and concludes on November 30, although hurricanes may occur outside this timeframe.

Hurricanes can also form in the Pacific Ocean, with the Eastern Pacific hurricane season running from May 15 to November 30. Storms in this area impact travel to the Mexican Riviera, including destinations like Los Cabos, Mazatlan, Puerto Vallarta, Acapulco, and Ixtapa.

Hurricanes may also affect Hawaii, generally between June and the end of November, but most frequently from July to September.

Cyclones, which are similar storms, occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The peak cyclone season for Australia and New Zealand is from March to April.

Is my vacation spot safe from hurricanes?

Atlantic hurricanes typically originate in the Caribbean, move towards the Bahamas, and then impact U.S. states such as Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, and Texas.

Hurricanes have also affected northern areas including North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, and Canada.

Hurricanes are generally more intense in the Eastern Caribbean, with the peak season for this region occurring from mid-August to September, while the Western Caribbean experiences more storms from mid-September to early November.

Cruise itineraries can also be impacted by hurricane season.

Hurricane terminology

Keep an eye on the weather if you have vacation plans in hurricane-prone areas during hurricane season.

As you follow the weather updates, interpret the information using the following categories:

• Tropical depression: A weather event with sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less.
• Tropical storm: A storm with winds between 39 and 73 mph.
• Hurricane: A storm with sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph.
• Hurricane watch: Potential for sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or greater in the designated area.
• Hurricane warning: Sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or more are expected in the specified area.
• Major hurricane: A hurricane categorized as a Category 3 or above.

For additional information, refer to the National Hurricane Center's glossary of hurricane-related terms.

Travel insurance

If you're planning to travel to a location during its hurricane season, explore your protection options. You can purchase third-party travel insurance, utilize credit card protections, or choose to self-insure if the trip cost is low enough to absorb the loss.

Keep in mind that most travel insurance policies do not cover trip cancellations if you decide to cancel your trip in advance due to unfavorable weather forecasts. Typically, the storm must be named, and you need to have purchased your insurance prior to the storm being named.

If you're concerned that inclement weather may spoil your trip, consider adding a cancel-for-any-reason option to your insurance policy. Although this can be costly, it may be suitable for your needs. You can compare prices for trip insurance with and without this add-on at sites like InsureMyTrip and SquareMouth.

Ways to assist

Many individuals will require assistance following Hurricane Beryl (and potentially other storms during the season).

Airlink is a nonprofit that collaborates with aviation and logistics partners to deliver relief and supplies to aid workers and affected communities. Airlink informed TPG that it will offer support in impacted nations, including Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica, among others.

You can make a direct donation to Airlink here.

In summary

"As one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded approaches its conclusion, NOAA scientists anticipate a swift shift to La Niña conditions, which promote Atlantic hurricane activity by reducing wind shear in the tropics," according to NOAA. "Additionally, the abundant ocean heat content in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea provides more energy for storm formation."

This indicates that we anticipate a busier Atlantic hurricane season compared to recent years.

"Climate change driven by human activity is raising ocean temperatures globally and in the Atlantic region, while melting land ice contributes to rising sea levels, increasing the risk of storm surges," NOAA noted. "Rising sea levels clearly amplify the potential damage from hurricanes."

NOAA will provide an update to its 2024 outlook in August, coinciding with the peak of hurricane season.