The $7 billion toll of the Ukraine conflict on global tourism has left popular Middle Eastern destinations struggling to stay afloat.

As the war in Ukraine continues, its repercussions are beginning to reach beyond the food shortages that have already raised concerns among Middle Eastern policymakers.

The Middle East, home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations and most glamorous cities, is a top destination for global tourists. Cities such as Dubai, Cairo, and Istanbul frequently rank among the world’s most popular tourism spots.

Egypt, Turkey, and more recently the UAE have become major hotspots for tourists from Ukraine and Russia. The tourism industries in Egypt and Turkey are already feeling the effects, with experts predicting further losses ahead.

Before the pandemic, Ukrainian tourism to Egypt surged by 49% in 2019 compared to the previous year, making Ukrainians the second-largest group of visitors to the country after Germany, according to a 2020 report by Colliers International. After Cairo resumed international flights in July 2021, Ukrainians were among the first to return, as noted by Deputy Tourism Minister Ghada Shalaby.

In 2021, Russia lifted a six-year ban on charter flights between Egypt and Russia, imposed after a tragic 2015 plane crash. As a result, the number of Russian tourists soared, reaching 700,000 visitors in that year, according to Russian state news agency Sputnik.

Egypt’s tourism ministry is now working to attract visitors from a wider range of countries.

‘It’s a major blow, but we’re doing our best to survive,’ Shalaby told Dinogo, explaining that Egypt is focusing on retaining Russian tourists while also launching campaigns to target Western European and Arab visitors for the upcoming season.

However, analysts remain doubtful that Egypt will be able to fully compensate for the loss of tourists from Russia and Ukraine.

‘A complete replacement of tourists from those two countries is unlikely,’ said Timothy Kaldas, a policy fellow at the Tahrir Institute of Middle East Policy, noting that several pre-existing issues have already caused significant disruptions to Egypt’s economy.

‘Egypt already faces a range of challenges, and this war is only exacerbating them,’ he added.

In the coastal resorts of Antalya along the Turkish Riviera, workers in the tourism industry are growing increasingly concerned about the declining visitor numbers.

'Russia is our biggest market, with Ukraine coming in as the third or fourth most important,' said Ulkay Atmaca, president of Turkey's Professional Hotel Managers Association.

Some are holding out hope for a resolution to the conflict before the summer season, hoping it could save the industry, but others are more pessimistic about the outlook.

'We’re expecting a 60% to 65% drop in volume,' said Nihal Duruk, Sales and Marketing Manager at Premier Palace Hotel in Antalya, in an interview with Dinogo. 'Even if the conflict ends today, we’ve already lost 50% of our projected bookings for the 2022 season,' she added.

According to the Turkish Ministry of Tourism, over 2 million Ukrainian tourists visited Turkey in 2021, while an additional 4.7 million came from Russia.

Bahattin Yucel, a former Turkish economy minister, predicts that the economic losses will continue to rise as the crisis triggered by Western sanctions on Russia begins to impact the Turkish population.

'Both the war and the economic downturn in Russia will have an impact on us,' Yucel commented.

On the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, Russia became Dubai’s second-largest source of tourists in 2021, according to data from the Arabian Travel Market (ATM).

Tourist numbers skyrocketed after the UAE introduced a free 30-day visa for Russian travelers in 2018. The number of Russians visiting Dubai and Abu Dhabi grew by more than 60% in the first eight months of that year, reported the UAE’s state-owned newspaper The National.

While the war may devastate some Middle Eastern sectors, it could benefit others. Wealthy Russians, seeking a financial refuge, are investing heavily in real estate in Turkey and the UAE, Reuters reported. Both countries offer residency incentives to property buyers.

The hotel industry, however, does not anticipate a swift recovery.

'Regardless of how quickly this issue is resolved, we’ll be feeling the consequences of this crisis for at least three to four years,' said Duruk, a hotelier from Antalya, Turkey.

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Food inspectors have been discreetly sampling dishes from some of Dubai’s 20,000 restaurants to assess the variety and quality of the city's culinary offerings.

Unbeknownst to the chefs, the individuals dining anonymously at their establishments are Michelin inspectors, compiling the first-ever Michelin Guide for Dubai—the first city in the Middle East to be featured in these prestigious guidebooks that rate restaurants based on excellence.

The Michelin Guide currently spans 35 destinations worldwide, with Dubai now being added to this elite list. Inspectors evaluate restaurants on five key factors: the quality of ingredients, cooking expertise, flavor balance, the chef's personal touch in the cuisine, and the consistency of both the food and the overall dining experience.

The announcement of Dubai’s inclusion in the Michelin Guide was met with excitement by local restaurateurs, including Joey Ghazal, the founder of The MAINE New England Brasserie, who operates three restaurants in Dubai and one in London.

'The arrival of Michelin in Dubai will transform the city's dining scene,' says Ghazal, noting that it will lead to higher property rents, increased hotel bookings, and the ability to attract and retain top culinary talent.

The Lebanese-Canadian restaurateur believes that the Michelin Guide can help position Dubai as a serious contender on the global culinary map. 'Look at it through the lens of regional cuisines… we have a chance to showcase our food, whether it's Levantine, pan-Arab, or Persian,' he adds.

By Tasmiyah Randeree, Dinogo

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