What Constitutes a “Normal” Level of Flight Cancellations?

As we approach the Fourth of July holiday, last summer's travel troubles may resurface, with forecasts predicting a record number of air travelers. Since June 25, over 8,000 flights have been canceled across the nation, and around 40,000 flights have experienced delays. This chaos is mainly due to severe weather on the East Coast, causing a ripple effect nationwide, leaving planes and crews stranded.

If you’ve been following the unfolding chaos (or were among the many travelers caught in it), you may be asking, “How frequently do flights experience delays or cancellations?”

To put it in perspective, approximately 25,000 flights are typically scheduled to depart from U.S. airports every day.

According to Gary Leff, author of ViewFromTheWing.com, it’s considered ‘normal’ for about 1 to 2 percent of flights to be canceled. He also noted that around 20 to 25 percent of flights arrive at least 15 minutes late, although tracking the extent of delays can be more challenging.

Brett Snyder, president of Cranky Concierge, an air travel assistance service that provides urgent help during flight cancellations or delays, noted that around 1 percent cancellations are typical. Thus, if 1 percent of flights were canceled, it would equate to approximately 250 canceled flights across the country.

On Monday, June 26, the cancellation count peaked at 2,252 flights, representing just over 9 percent of all U.S. flights for that day, given there were 25,000 scheduled. About 1,200 of those cancellations affected flights at one of the three major New York area airports, causing widespread disruptions.

Snyder explained, “A plane might start in New York where weather conditions are poor and be scheduled to travel to Atlanta and then Fort Lauderdale. Even if the latter cities have clear weather, the plane remains stuck in New York. The same applies if the crew is coming from there. A plane might be available in Atlanta, but without a crew, it can't depart. While there are crew reserves in hubs to manage isolated issues, major disruptions can overwhelm those reserves.”

The extensive delays and cancellations lead to more traveler frustrations: Many find themselves unable to retrieve their luggage and have had to sleep overnight on airline-issued cots in terminals. For those who faced Southwest Airlines’ massive operational failure during the 2022 holiday season—when over 1,000 flights, or 29 percent of its schedule, were canceled due to weather and operational challenges—this scenario may feel eerily familiar.

However, the last 18 months have generally been rough for on-time arrivals. In 2022, 2.7 percent of all U.S. domestic flights were canceled—the highest rate in the past decade, excluding 2020. Additionally, 23 percent of all domestic flights faced delays, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. In 2023 alone, there have already been nearly 27,000 cancellations, which translates to 1.66 percent of all flights.

“Untangling this issue may take some time,” Snyder remarked.

What to do if your flight gets canceled

If you find yourself in the chaos, the first step is to explore alternative travel options (which you can do while waiting in line to talk to an agent or during a phone hold with the airline) since available seats may be limited and proactive travelers often benefit. Remember that if your flight is canceled and you still wish to travel, airlines must, according to the Department of Transportation, rebook you for free on the next available flight. Additionally, if you experience a cancellation or significant delay (over three hours), you can request to be moved to a flight with a competing airline. While they aren't legally obligated to accommodate this, they frequently do if options are scarce. If you decide against flying, you are entitled to a full refund using your original payment method.

How to sidestep travel interruptions

To minimize the risk of future travel headaches, there are several strategies you can use to increase your chances of a smooth journey.

Booking directly with the airline rather than through a third-party service can significantly streamline any necessary flight changes, as you can deal directly with the airline, which is typically quicker. Utilizing the airline's app can also be advantageous, allowing you to view all available flights through your carrier and potentially switch to a more convenient flight that fits your schedule.

Opting for the first flight of the day is wise, as delays tend to accumulate as the day progresses. If your flight is canceled, you'll have more options to reach your destination on the same day.

Booking a nonstop flight is advisable to reduce the chance of complications (like missing a connection due to delays). However, if a layover is unavoidable, choose a longer one to create a buffer in case any issues arise.