Japan has reopened its borders to travelers, but why are tourists still not returning?

The summer of 2022 was filled with tales of travel disruptions, overcrowding at popular sites, chaotic airports, and extreme heatwaves across Europe.

In contrast, many Asian countries are reopening more slowly, with fewer flight cancellations and fewer stories of lost luggage, yet tourism in the region remains sluggish.

This is particularly surprising in Japan, which reopened in June 2022 amid much excitement, right before the busy summer travel season. Between June 10 and July 10, Japan only saw about 1,500 leisure tourists, according to Japan’s Immigration Services Agency. This is a 95% drop compared to the same time in 2019, before the pandemic.

So what’s driving this decline? Why are travelers taking so long to return to a destination that has traditionally been a favorite?

Safety in numbers, but not for everyone

Although Japan is open to visitors again, the country is only allowing tourists to enter as part of organized groups, not as independent travelers. For many Westerners who value flexibility and dislike rigid schedules, this policy is a dealbreaker.

‘We don’t need a guide,’ says Melissa Musiker, a New York-based PR professional who frequently traveled to Japan before the pandemic.

Musiker and her husband had visited Tokyo ‘around six times.’ They had planned a trip for 2022 after hearing the country was reopening, but when they learned of the restrictions, they were frustrated and decided to cancel their plans.

Instead, they’re choosing to vacation in South Korea, a destination with fewer travel restrictions.

‘We didn’t want to deal with quarantine. That was a major factor,’ says Musiker. ‘We prefer to just explore, shop, and indulge in pricey sushi.’

Her preference for city trips over beach getaways made Seoul the top choice, especially given her newfound obsession with K-dramas during the pandemic.

A semi-open situation isn’t truly open at all.

Japan's not-quite-open status goes beyond visas. The country still enforces mask mandates in many places, group tours can be expensive, and mandatory quarantine on arrival makes it a harder sell for many.

Katie Tam is the co-founder of Arry, an exclusive subscription platform that helps travelers secure hard-to-get reservations at some of Tokyo's most sought-after restaurants, including Obama-endorsed Sukiyai Jiro and the Asia's Best Restaurants list leader, Den.

Before the pandemic, Arry’s primary users were frequent visitors from Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, who would travel to Japan several times a year or even just for spontaneous weekend trips. Since 2020, however, the platform has had to pause its operations.

‘We didn’t realize it would take this long,’ she says about what was intended as a temporary break. ‘It’s definitely been a challenging time.’

The few members reaching out to Arry about making reservations, Tam explains, are those who have been able to secure business travel visas for Japan. For now, these are the only way non-citizens can visit independently, and some are taking advantage of the lack of tourists to book coveted spots at popular restaurants they previously couldn't access.

There’s a silver lining, however. Despite the difficulties, many of Japan's top restaurants have managed to thrive during the pandemic.

‘A lot of the restaurants we collaborate with have a solid local clientele,’ says Tam. The good news is that these popular spots will remain open and ready for foreign tourists when they can return.

According to the Immigration Services Agency, the largest markets for Japanese tourism are now Thailand and South Korea. However, ‘largest’ is relative—only around 400 visitors have come from each of these countries since June. The United States has sent just 150.

The Impact of China

In 2019, Japan's largest tourism market was China, with 9.25 million Chinese visitors.

Currently, however, China remains largely closed off to the world. With strict quarantine measures in place for both citizens and foreigners, tourism has come to a halt.

Japan isn't the only nation feeling the effects of the absence of Chinese travelers. Popular destinations like Australia, Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea have all lost significant revenue as over a billion potential tourists stay home.

Hiroyuki Ami, the public relations head at Tokyo Skytree, shares that it wasn’t until June 27 that the first international tour group visited the observation deck. The group consisted of guests from Hong Kong.

While Hong Kong is a financial hub with strict restrictions like mandatory hotel quarantine for returning residents, it has been easier for tourists to travel from there compared to mainland China.

‘Before Covid,’ Ami says, ‘China had the largest number of foreign visitors, but I haven't seen many of them recently.’ He noted that in the past six weeks, most Skytree visitors have been local Japanese on their summer holidays.

‘Just because we’ve reopened to tourists doesn’t mean we’re seeing many international visitors,’ he adds.

Waiting for the right moment

If Japan decides to fully reopen to solo leisure travelers, there's a good chance they’ll be eager to return. The term ‘revenge travel’ was coined to describe those who saved up during the pandemic and now want to splurge on a dream vacation, with Japan still high on many people's travel lists.

‘There’s a lot of excitement about returning to Japan,’ says Tam, co-founder of Arry. ‘I think interest is going to increase.’