Significant Changes to the Alaska Mileage Plan — Book Your Awards Before March 1

I can't be the only one who feels that Alaska Airlines' Mileage Plan used to be my top airline loyalty program.

I've actively pursued Alaska status and accumulated hundreds of thousands of miles. However, the program has seen a steady decline over the past few months.

Alaska's entry into Oneworld was expected to be a beneficial shift, offering more opportunities to earn and redeem miles along with new elite perks. While that has happened, it has also led to a series of devaluations, including cutting earning rates, removing a valuable non-alliance partner, introducing dynamic award pricing, and imposing exorbitant rates for its newest redemption partners.

In my view, Alaska is preparing for a broad devaluation, and the window to maximize your miles is quickly closing.

With significant changes to the award chart coming on March 1, let’s explore which awards you should secure now.

Upcoming adjustments to Alaska's award chart

Two key alterations are on the horizon: one affecting American award flights and another concerning premium cabin Alaska flights. Here’s a rundown of these changes and their potential impact on your Alaska miles.

Changes to American Airlines redemptions

A series of changes will come into effect on March 1, the most significant being that American Airlines awards will transition to dynamic pricing.

Starting this March, Alaska will eliminate its fixed caps for American Airlines award flights within the U.S. and Canada. Prices for American awards will begin at a base rate and fluctuate based on demand. Until now, miles for American flights had set rates, with one-way fares in the contiguous U.S. and Canada being 12,500 miles for economy and 25,000 miles for business class.

This isn't a first for the airline; Alaska previously adopted dynamic pricing for awards booked with Aer Lingus, LATAM, Malaysia Airlines, and Qatar Airways, which can lead to higher redemption costs unless you find awards at the minimum partner prices.

With Qatar, Alaska provides access to additional award availability not offered by other partner airlines, but at higher rates. When saver seats are available, Alaska sticks to its base rates. It remains uncertain whether the upcoming shift to dynamic pricing will grant Alaska members extra award space on American flights.

If you want to ensure availability, it’s best to book any American award flights now and consider canceling later if needed.

Changes to Alaska Airlines first-class award pricing

The upcoming adjustment affects first-class awards on Alaska’s own routes. Although Alaska is maintaining its award chart pricing bands, it is increasing the maximum mileage required by over 35% in some instances.

For first-class awards on Alaska Airlines flights that range from 1,401 to 2,100 miles, the maximum mileage will increase from 60,000 to 70,000 miles, marking a 17% rise. Additionally, for "leap" flights exceeding 2,100 miles, the cap will surge from 70,000 miles to an astonishing 95,000 miles, representing a significant 36% hike.

This new maximum of 95,000 miles will also apply to flights heading to Central America and Hawaii. Fortunately, there will be no changes to the minimum mileage required or to main cabin award pricing.

Although this change is difficult to accept, it should impact fewer travelers. In reality, you’ll likely face these peak rates mainly during busy travel times or when trying to book one of the last remaining seats on a flight.

Once again, if saver-level availability exists, you should be able to book awards at the lowest rate. However, this is not guaranteed.

Potential upcoming devaluation

My greatest concern is that the worst may still be on the horizon.

Alaska has been slowly increasing the number of redemptions available with more Oneworld partners, but the redemption values have been disappointing compared to the original partners.

Take, for instance, the rates from North America to Europe. On Iberia, these awards cost 35,000 miles in economy and 75,000 miles in business, while Royal Air Maroc and Royal Jordanian charge 60,000 miles and 120,000 miles, respectively. In contrast, you can book American Airlines or British Airways for about 22,500 to 32,500 miles in economy and around 60,000 miles in business class. This represents a significant gap, particularly for business class.

To put this in perspective, sometimes you can secure Cathay Pacific or Japan Airlines first-class flights between North America and Asia, which can exceed $10,000, for only 70,000 miles. Conversely, a short intra-Asia business-class award with Alaska's newest partner, Malaysia Airlines, can cost nearly the same — 65,000 miles.

It appears that Alaska will likely seek to better align its redemption rates. Offering first-class awards to Asia at nearly the same cost as an intra-Asia business-class award, and even less than a business-class award to Europe, won't be sustainable once travel restrictions ease. Alaska is probably just waiting for demand to bounce back before making these adjustments.

Additionally, moving away from fixed award charts enables Alaska to raise redemption rates at any time without prior notice. This is particularly concerning given that Alaska assured TPG upon joining the Oneworld frequent flyer alliance that it would "strive to provide at least 90 days' notice before any changes to current partner awards."

Alaska's perspective

In response to my concerns, an Alaska Airlines spokesperson stated, "We are constantly striving to balance providing excellent value for our members in the most meaningful areas while ensuring that our business economics remain viable."

Does this indicate that further changes are on the horizon? It's a possibility. However, the airline does not classify them as devaluations.

From Alaska's perspective, the increased redemption rates are balanced by elevated earning rates — you’ll always earn a minimum of 1 mile for every mile flown on Alaska flights. "We believe our Mileage Plan program is quite generous with its distance-based earning, making it easier to accumulate miles compared to revenue-based programs," the spokesperson explained. "This factor must be considered when evaluating the overall value of the program instead of just focusing on redemption costs."

The spokesperson noted that, based on the airline's average fares and typical domestic trip lengths, a general member would need to spend approximately $4,200 on flights to earn 40,000 Alaska miles. "In a revenue-based program, you would need to spend $8,000 to accumulate the same number of miles," they added.

However, the airline does not collaborate with any major credit card transferable points programs, which can make earning miles a bit more challenging.

The spokesperson also highlighted Alaska's free stopover policy. "Our latest awards continue to provide exceptional value for your miles, even without considering the initial earning investment and the various areas where we heavily invest in customer generosity," they stated.

Nevertheless, this still doesn’t clarify the discrepancies in pricing between new and old partners.

Final Thoughts

In the realm of points and miles, if something seems too good to be true, it likely won't last. Sadly, it appears that the peak of the Alaska Mileage Plan may be coming to an end.

For a considerable time, Alaska was recognized as having the most valuable airline miles according to TPG valuations, with each mile valued at 1.8 cents. Moreover, redeeming for premium airfare often yielded even greater value. However, given the trajectory of the award charts, it seems probable that Alaska will soon diminish the value of many of its original sweet spots.

In the meantime, if you have a significant amount of Alaska miles, it might be wise to consider booking future awards speculatively before further changes are implemented.

Personally, I'm thinking about adjusting my earning strategy and crediting future Oneworld flights to a different program moving forward.