Why Are Flight Prices So High Right Now? We Consulted the Experts

If you're gearing up for summer travel, you might be shocked by the soaring airfare. Despite the recent announcement from the Department of Transportation regarding new regulations to tackle airline "junk fees," the intricacies of ticket pricing remain puzzling. We interviewed Ryan Ewing, founder of AirlineGeeks, Anton Radchenko, CEO of AirAdvisor, and travel agent Mercedes Zach from ASAP Tickets to uncover the reasons behind high flight costs.

Ultimately, there's no straightforward answer. "There are hundreds of people in departments working on pricing, making it a highly intricate process," Ewing explains. "Like many areas, inflation is contributing to higher prices, and airlines are certainly affected by that."

Here’s what our experts reveal about the reasons behind high flight costs — and tips to save on your next journey.

Airline Taxes and Charges

When purchasing airfare online, you might find that the base ticket price seems quite reasonable, yet additional taxes and fees can significantly inflate the total cost. Your ticket will typically include two main types of fees — government-imposed taxes and carrier-imposed charges. Government taxes cover expenses like a $5.60 Passenger Fee or a September 11 Security Fee intended to bolster security measures, as well as an air transportation tax, a federal segment fee, and a facility charge. The specific amounts can differ depending on your airport, whether there are layovers, and if you're flying domestically or internationally.

“Some countries impose significant tourism taxes, which can easily be hidden in your ticket price,” Ewing explains. “If you want to investigate after purchasing, check the raw ticket details, and you'll notice numerous taxes added at the end.”

These taxes can differ greatly between domestic and international flights. Let’s examine a few examples to clarify this. A one-way, nonstop flight from New York City (JFK) to San Francisco (SFO) on Delta Air Lines in the main cabin costs $378.10. Here’s the detailed breakdown:

• Base fare: $337.67
• U.S. Transportation Tax: $25.33
• U.S. Passenger Facility Charge: $4.50
• U.S. Flight Segment Tax (Domestic): $5.00
• U.S. Passenger Civil Aviation Security Service Fee: $5.60

This means you’re paying $40.43 in taxes and fees on a $337.67 ticket, which is about 12 percent.

Now, let’s contrast this with an international trip. A round-trip flight from JFK to London (LHR) on Delta Air Lines in the main cabin costs $825.60. Here’s the breakdown:

• Base fare: $338.00
• Carrier-imposed international surcharge: $245.00
• U.S. Passenger Civil Aviation Security Service Fee: $5.60
• U.S. International Departure Tax: $44.40
• U.S. Passenger Facility Charge: $4.50
• U.S. APHIS Passenger Fee: $3.83
• U.K. Passenger Service Charge (Departures): $60.80
• U.S. Customs User Fee: $6.97
• U.S. Immigration User Fee: $7.00
• U.K. Air Passenger Duty: $109.50

Thus, on a base fare of $338.00, you end up paying $487.60 in taxes and fees, which more than doubles the price of your ticket. To minimize these taxes and fees, consider altering your departure and arrival airports or the country you’re passing through.

Factors Influencing Flight Costs 

Carrier-imposed fees are another addition to your ticket price. These charges are generally included to cover fuel costs and are often more noticeable when you redeem miles for a flight.

“The International Air Transport Association, which represents most major airlines responsible for about 80 percent of air traffic, anticipates that jet fuel prices will rise to $2.70 per gallon, up from an average of around $2.66 per gallon in 2023,” Radchenko explains. “On March 12th, American Airlines revealed in an SEC filing that it expects to pay an average of between $2.80 and $2.90 per gallon of fuel, a significant increase from its earlier estimate of $2.65 to $2.85.”

Ultimately, airlines will not absorb the increased costs of fuel; these expenses will be passed on to customers, either through higher fares or fuel surcharges on mileage redemptions.

Another element influencing your ticket price is seat availability. “According to a December OAG report, global seat capacity for 2023 was just 3.7 percent lower than in 2019, and by the first quarter of 2024, it is expected to exceed 2019 levels by 2.9 percent. This suggests that airfare prices should become more stable and predictable moving forward,” says Zach. This could bode well for travelers, potentially leading to stabilized or even reduced flight costs in the near future.

However, it remains uncertain how ongoing issues with Boeing will affect seat availability. Recently, there have been significant safety and performance concerns regarding the Boeing 737 Max. These challenges could heavily influence the industry in the coming years. “I always say it's a troubling sign when consumers start to pay attention to the type of aircraft they’re flying,” Ewing remarks. An increasing number of travelers are opting to avoid those planes entirely, using search engines to filter out Boeing aircraft when booking flights.

“I believe another issue is that both United and Southwest have halved their expected aircraft deliveries for 2024,” Ewing states. “This is significant because airlines plan their capacity growth based on those additional Boeing planes. With the deliveries cut by about 50 percent, there will be fewer seats available in the market than initially anticipated.”

This ultimately ties back to the basic principles of supply and demand — fewer seats available means a limited supply for summer travel during peak demand, which results in higher flight prices.

“Another factor contributing to the rise in airfare over the past few years has been the workforce shortage in the travel industry, affecting everyone from pilots to flight attendants and maintenance staff,” Zach explains. “Both airlines and airport service providers made significant layoffs during the pandemic and haven't yet returned to previous staffing levels.”

With labor costs rising and not operating at full capacity, there may be fewer flights and increased prices. “The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates that by 2026, the aviation sector will need 480,000 new technicians for aircraft maintenance and over 350,000 pilots, a challenge that could take up to a decade to fully address,” Zach adds.

Ways to Cut Costs on Flights

The most effective way to save on flights is to maintain flexibility. As a full-time traveler, I can confirm that adjusting your travel dates by just one day or flying into a nearby airport can save you hundreds, if not more, on your ticket. Opting to visit a popular destination during the off-season or choosing a less-known location can significantly reduce both airfare and accommodation expenses.

Ewing advises doing thorough research before buying tickets. “These days, Google Flights is one of my top choices, as it allows you to refine your search using multiple filters,” he says. A flight search engine like Google Flights can also help you decide on a vacation spot if you haven't made up your mind yet. By selecting the “anywhere” feature from your departure airport, you can discover some fantastic deals on tickets.

“There’s often a stigma associated with airlines like Spirit and other ultra-low-cost carriers, but they are now providing a much improved premium experience,” Ewing points out. “For example, Frontier recently introduced a blocked middle seat option, allowing you to pay extra for a so-called big front seat, essentially offering first-class space.” Frontier has branded this service as UpFront Plus, now available in the first two rows of its Airbus planes, giving you significantly more room. Flying with these budget airlines can help you customize your travel experience while spending less compared to similar seats on other carriers.

When redeeming miles for your flight, you can sometimes avoid certain government-imposed taxes. For example, the JFK to SFO flight we discussed earlier would require 20,500 Delta SkyMiles plus just $5.60 to cover the September 11 tax, eliminating the other $34.83 in taxes. However, keep in mind that some routes might have a fuel surcharge added to your redemption.

While flights can be pricey, good deals are out there if you actively search for them. When you spot a great offer, it's best to purchase right away, as there’s no guarantee it will still be available tomorrow.