Discover why this autumn is an excellent opportunity to book a flight

It's truly the most delightful season of the year ... for flight deals.

The autumn 'shoulder season' has arrived, leading to lower airfare as the crowds diminish post-summer, just before the holiday rush kicks in.

The season kicked off in August, as earlier school start dates eased the congestion at airport terminals. Transportation Security Administration checkpoints experienced roughly 5% fewer travelers in August compared to July — a welcome moment of (relative) tranquility following a summer with the busiest days ever recorded at U.S. airports.

This trend is expected to persist into the fall months, resulting in continued lower fares.

What is the current cost of airfare?

Domestic round-trip airfare for September is averaging about 8% lower than 2023 figures, according to the booking app Hopper. In October, prices have dropped approximately 7% compared to last year.

This comes despite airlines' attempts to adjust their route networks and flight schedules to counteract the decline in fares. Such efforts have negatively impacted airlines' profitability throughout the year amidst a surplus of domestic flight options.

From September to November, airlines are expected to offer a slight increase of 2.5% in total domestic flight seats compared to last year, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.

This increase occurs even as several airlines cut back on flights later in the year. For instance, budget airline Frontier Airlines is removing numerous flights on low-demand days such as Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

The airline anticipates that its actions — along with those from Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, and others — will contribute to fare hikes in the late summer and early fall.

"More likely ... I believe we'll see prices continue to drop from their current levels — and remain low, due to it being the shoulder season with potentially weak demand," responded Hayley Berg, Hopper's chief economist.

Here’s what you should consider if you're looking to seize deals and plan a fall escape.

When is the best time to book a flight?

Google Flights indicates that domestic fares tend to hit their lowest point approximately 38 days prior to departure. The optimal booking window is between 21 to 52 days before your flight.

In other words, if you're planning a mid-October trip to enjoy the fall colors, now is the perfect time to start finalizing your bookings.

For international travel, it's best to book as far in advance as you can. Currently, the "sweet spot" is around 101 days before departure. However, be sure to check at least 50 days ahead to secure the best prices.

Fifty days from now places you around a late-October or early-November journey.

Schedule your trip for a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Saturday.

Airlines consistently report that these midweek days tend to be the least busy at airports.

Just look at the almost overwhelming tranquility I experienced during a recent Wednesday morning at Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).

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Traveling on a Friday or Sunday? That's a completely different situation.

If you need to fly on a weekend, Saturday often proves to be one of the most affordable — and least crowded — days of the week.

Join the post-summer trend of traveling to Europe

While we've primarily discussed decreased demand in the fall, airlines have noticed a somewhat ironic trend: An increasing number of travelers are choosing to visit Europe during the so-called "off-peak months."

"We are truly observing a surge into September and October, and even into November, with European demand remaining robust overall," stated Delta Air Lines president Glen Hauenstein to financial analysts in July. "In fact, September and October are better months for a European trip compared to July and August, when the heat and crowds can be overwhelming."

Southern Europe gains popularity in the fall

This is particularly true for southern Europe. This fall, Delta, American Airlines, and United Airlines are set to provide 55% more seats to Italy compared to 2019, according to Cirium data.

Overall, airlines will be operating with 45% more seats to Portugal this fall than they did five years ago.

What are the current costs for flights to Europe?

Airfare to numerous European destinations is on the decline. As reported by FCM Travel and Corporate Traveler — the primary business travel sectors of Flight Centre Travel Group — recent data indicates nearly a 20% decrease in fares to France and about an 18% drop in fares to the U.K. compared to last year.

Remember to utilize your points and miles

The widespread elimination of award charts by many airlines is generally unfavorable for consumers. This may be one of the strategies that has drawn the attention of the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Nonetheless, dynamic award pricing can benefit you when demand and prices are low. Points pricing is now more closely aligned with the algorithmic factors influencing cash prices.

Therefore, definitely think about utilizing your points and miles.

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Simultaneously, you might consider using cash to purchase a flight and leveraging miles to upgrade to a business-class seat on long-haul journeys. Alternatively, think about redeeming your points for high-value hotel stays, like with World of Hyatt. (You can transfer Chase Ultimate Rewards and Bilt Rewards points to Hyatt at a 1:1 ratio.)

Hotel rates have remained stable or even increased compared to last year recently.

Begin planning for the holidays

We can't overlook the upcoming holiday season, when airport traffic is expected to surge.

Google Flights recommends that you book your Thanksgiving flights by early October and your Christmas and New Year's flights by the latter half of October at the latest.