Here’s Why Your Flight Costs Are So High Right Now

A quick getaway to Costa Rica in mid-May seemed perfect for a sun-deprived office worker in Chicago—until she realized her round-trip flight would cost her $1,300.

A couple from New York City scored two hard-to-find tickets to the Vermeer exhibit in Amsterdam this spring, but their fortune faded when they discovered their round-trip flight would exceed $4,000.

Meanwhile, a family of four from the Bay Area decided it was time to visit their ancestral homeland in Eastern Europe—only to find their airfare had skyrocketed to over $6,000, nearly double their initial expectations. Rather than delay their plans, they charged the trip on their credit card and realized they would need to economize in other areas.

It’s not just a feeling. When it comes to booking flights in 2023, “the sticker shock is definitely real,” asserts Hayley Berg, an economist at the air travel booking app Hopper. “Almost every part of the world is experiencing a price hike.”

Hopper reports that approximately one-third of search inquiries are for European destinations, with average airfare increasing by 32 percent compared to 2022. Travelers should anticipate paying around $1,000 for round-trip tickets on major airlines for the most affordable coach-class options, while the demand for premium economy and business class has also driven those prices higher.

For instance, ticket prices from the United States to Athens have surged by 45 percent from last year, averaging about $1,100 for a round trip; fares to Barcelona and Rome have similarly risen by over 40 percent compared to 2022, as reported by Hopper.

What’s Causing the High Flight Prices Right Now?

The soaring flight costs in 2023 can largely be attributed to a combination of factors, including prevailing economic conditions, that have converged this year to exert upward pressure on airfares. Here are the four primary reasons why flights are currently so costly.

Inflation

Travel isn’t the only cost increasing these days. Inflation is driving up prices for most essential goods in 2023. “This is placing pressure on the airlines’ expenses,” explains Berg. She adds, “It impacts everything from pilot salaries to the cost of the snacks they serve during flights.”

Overall, airfares are rising at a pace that exceeds inflation. A recent report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which monitors airfare and other expenses, states that “[Flight] ticket prices are growing significantly faster than the inflation rate.” The agency highlighted that the average airfare in the U.S. surged by 28.5 percent in 2022 compared to the previous year, whereas the Consumer Price Index, a common gauge of inflation, increased by only 6.5 percent during the same timeframe.

The Cost of Oil

Jet fuel, usually the airlines’ second-largest expense after labor, has also risen sharply since the onset of the pandemic, partly due to the conflict in Ukraine; oil prices that were about $65 per barrel in 2021 have consistently exceeded $100 per barrel over the past year.

A Shortage of Aircraft

A significant constraint is that new airplanes aren’t being produced as quickly as anticipated. Gary Leff, founder of the travel site View from the Wing, notes that airlines retired older aircraft during the pandemic, expecting to replace them with more fuel-efficient models on order. However, both Boeing and Airbus have encountered delays in manufacturing and delivering planes due to ongoing supply chain issues.

Persistent Pilot and Staff Shortages

Another challenge is that airlines are still working to rebuild their route networks. While they are nearly back to 2019 capacity in many areas, they may lack sufficient crew to handle the increased demand. “Airfares are ultimately determined by supply and demand,” explains Leff. “Travel has returned faster than airlines can ramp up their operations.”

Indeed, airlines continue to grapple with a chronic staffing shortage. Leff points out that U.S. carriers received as much as $10 billion each in subsidies aimed at retaining staff after the pandemic halted air travel in 2020. “They utilized that funding to encourage early retirements, resulting in voluntary separations that were legally permissible under bailout conditions.” Recently, airlines have intensified recruitment efforts and launched innovative pilot training programs to address the critical shortage, but it’s a lengthy process that will require time to yield results.

Will airfares ever decrease again, or is this the new norm?

While supply remains constrained, the demand for flights is soaring, with numerous airlines reporting record booking numbers since the year began.

“There’s a surge of revenge travel and pent-up demand,” explains Diana Hechler, president of D. Tours Travel, a travel agency in Larchmont, New York. She notes that finding good deals on flights and hotels is becoming increasingly difficult, but ultimately, those determined to travel are paying the current rates. “Airlines will set prices based on what the market can handle, as long as they can get away with it.”

According to seasoned airline analyst Michael Derchin, two factors might alleviate the situation. One is the potential for an upcoming recession, which could reduce demand and subsequently lower airfares.

The other factor is Boeing’s recent announcement to increase the speed of new aircraft deliveries. “The silver lining is that there’s a substantial backlog of planes on order,” he says, and airlines are eager to start using the planes they’ve ordered.

Tips for Scoring a Good Airfare Deal

In the meantime, there are still bargains to be discovered—you just need to put in a little more effort, as experts suggest that timing is crucial.

“Affordable flights are still available, even as average prices rise,” states travel expert Katy Nastro from Going.com (formerly Scott’s Cheap Flights). “The secret to securing these deals lies in timing your bookings perfectly.”

For domestic travel, the sweet spot for booking is 1 to 3 months in advance, while for holiday travel, aim for 3 to 7 months ahead. For international trips, it's best to book at least 2 to 4 months prior, and even earlier during peak seasons.

Choosing a budget airline can also help cut costs, with some new entrants to the transatlantic market this year, such as Icelandic newcomer Play and Norwegian low-cost carrier Norse Atlantic. Nastro from Going highlights, “This can be a great way to get you to Europe this summer, and from there, you can take a shorter flight or use other transportation to reach your final destination,” potentially saving you hundreds of dollars.

Besides exploring low-cost airlines, there are additional strategies to enhance your chances of finding a great flight deal. Here are some expert tips:

• Enroll in airline loyalty programs to get on their mailing lists, ensuring you’ll be among the first to know about flash sales—this can be done online or via the airlines' apps.
• Set up alerts from apps like Kayak and Hopper that specialize in fare comparison and booking.
• Utilize a fare comparison calendar: If your travel dates are flexible, take advantage of fare calendars available on airline websites or airfare comparison tools like Google Flights to explore the range of airfares across various days and even different times of the year.
• Consider booking a vacation package that includes both airfare and hotel; airlines frequently provide reduced fares for bundled options (for example, through JetBlue Vacations or British Airways’ air and hotel packages—the British Airways offers are particularly attractive).