JetBlue Has Reduced Its Summer Flight Schedule. Will Additional Flights Be Impacted?

With cancellations and delays on the rise, planes are fuller than they’ve been since the jet age began. Long wait times—up to three hours—just to reach a live agent on the airline hotline. Could this lead to a chaotic summer travel season for passengers?

A glimpse of potential summer air travel conditions emerged last month during the peak spring break period, as flight schedules were disrupted by severe weather and staffing shortages exacerbated by a rise in COVID cases and crew illnesses. However, this also paved the way for a possible remedy from the airline that experienced the most service interruptions: JetBlue Airways. The airline not only apologized to affected customers but also took the uncommon step of proactively reducing its summer flight schedules by 10% before what is expected to be one of the busiest travel seasons in years. This marks a significant shift from its initial plans to increase capacity by 11 to 15% in 2022 compared to 2019.

Reasons Behind JetBlue's Summer Schedule Reduction

According to a statement from Joanna Geraghty, JetBlue's president, the airline's adjusted schedule “will create more flexibility throughout the day to compensate for operational challenges and alleviate pressure on its crew.” She noted that with airlines expecting “a record-breaking summer,” JetBlue plans to cut flights while enhancing hiring and training efforts, particularly in areas where customer frustrations are high—like support centers. Call volumes and wait times surged last month across the airline industry, and carriers are facing challenges in recruiting and training new employees amid a competitive labor market.

Experts in travel view the recent service breakdowns as a critical wake-up call. “April was particularly disastrous, especially for JetBlue,” remarks Michael Derchin, an airline analyst and author of the Heard in the Hangar newsletter. He notes that the responsibility is widespread: “All airlines have struggled to align their schedules with their available workforce.” With U.S. airline capacity still lower than pre-pandemic levels and load factors exceeding 85 percent, he warns, “there’s no margin for error when issues arise.”

Alaska Airlines and others confront pilot challenges

Other airlines are also voluntarily reducing their flight routes. Alaska Airlines, currently facing a potential pilot strike vote (the airline has expressed its commitment to achieving a favorable contract for its pilots), recently cut its flights through June by approximately 2% to reduce disruptions. Similarly, Southwest Airlines has eliminated around 8,000 flights from its June schedule, following the cancellation of 14,500 flights between March and May. Additionally, airlines like American and United have even resorted to bus transfers in some short-haul markets, a decision linked to the ongoing pilot shortage, according to various reports.

Helane Becker, an airline analyst at Cowen Inc., forecasts that air travel recovery will persist this year and “accelerate into 2023.” However, she acknowledges that staffing challenges will continue to trouble airlines, emphasizing the need to recruit enough skilled workers to prevent a recurrence of recent service issues.

“We are facing a significant shortage of pilots as well as mechanics,” she explains, highlighting that the airlines will need to bring on “thousands of individuals across various roles.”

Consumer advocates argue that there’s no justification for such inadequate service. “Even before COVID, there was already talk of a pilot shortage,” states William J. McGee, aviation advisor for Consumer Reports. During the pandemic, airlines incentivized early retirements for pilots, resulting in a loss of experienced crew members and exacerbating the existing shortage. Regardless of the reasons, McGee asserts that airlines shouldn’t sell more tickets than they can accommodate. “If they’re intentionally scheduling flights they can’t manage, that’s a serious issue.” He appreciates JetBlue's efforts to align capacity with actual operational capabilities.

Indeed, airlines are usually reluctant to scale back their networks to a more sustainable level, fearing that it could allow competitors to seize an advantage.

However, analyst Derchin argues that these concerns are insignificant compared to the current issues facing the industry: “We are in a new landscape since the pandemic, and no one is exempt from its impact.”

Despite the obstacles, travel demand continues to soar

While trimming flight schedules might enhance service quality, the downside is whether this will result in fewer available seats and consequently drive up airfares. Nonetheless, analysts believe that the pent-up demand for travel remains surprisingly strong, even with yet another wave of COVID cases emerging.

“While capacity may be reduced, demand is skyrocketing,” states Kevin Mitchell, leader of the Business Travel Coalition advocacy group. “They’re referring to it as ‘revenge travel’; people are eager to escape.” He notes that there are already signs indicating a rise in business travel beyond initial projections.

Regardless of the current strong demand for travel, airlines must take measures to prevent a repeat of 2021, when air travel was severely impacted by a series of travel-disrupting flight cancellations that began in the summer and persisted through the holiday season. To avoid similar chaos, they may need to consider implementing more proactive service reductions. While this might be challenging initially, it could lead to improved customer service and, hopefully, a smoother flying experience for everyone this summer.