Travel Predictions for 2021 from Our Editor

I'm excitedly planning my first major trip for when it feels truly safe to travel again.

It's tentatively scheduled for February. Or March. Perhaps it's that vacation I reserved for May. Hopefully, I can still go on that June getaway. And surely, there’s the August trip?

Welcome to the year 2021.

We can all gratefully acknowledge that "that previous year"—let's not mention it—is now behind us.

The travel industry is now eagerly anticipating a rebound, if not a surge in travel, as millions globally begin receiving vaccines.

Some people have been traveling throughout the pandemic, while others have only ventured out for the holidays. There are those who remain confined at home, either due to fear of risks or a commitment to avoid travel for the safety of others and to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.

My family has taken several road trips around the Northeast, often opting to rent homes for extended stays. We usually prefer hotels and quick getaways for long weekends.

As the editor of a site dedicated to empowering smarter travelers, I've spent the last nine months juggling various responsibilities. TPG has aimed to keep those choosing to travel informed about what to expect in airports and hotels while highlighting the seriousness and contagious nature of COVID-19.

With the arrival of a new year, we embrace new hope.

However, the journey will not be without its challenges. Here are my forecasts for the future of travel in 2021:

A long winter awaits

The initial quarter of the year is typically the most challenging for the travel sector, and this year will be especially difficult.

COVID-19 fatalities in the U.S. have reached an unprecedented level.

While pandemic fatigue is genuine, there remains a significant amount of fear surrounding it.

After traveling extensively with her family for months, TPG's Summer Hull has recently opted to pause further trips. You can find her reasoning here, but many families are likely making similar choices.

Since March, we've observed a notable increase in travel during major holidays such as Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas.

On Sunday, December 27, a new record was achieved for the pandemic era, with nearly 1.3 million travelers passing through airport security checkpoints nationwide, as reported by the Transportation Security Administration.

Although this figure is only half of the typical post-Christmas travel rush, it shows that many Americans continued to travel to see family or enjoy a warm beach, despite the advisories from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urging against it.

If this trend continues, we likely won't experience another significant wave of travelers until the February school breaks or spring break. Given the limited availability of vaccines, I don't foresee a return to "normal" travel until late spring or Memorial Day, which would be the most optimistic scenario for leisure travel.

And, as with everything else, this hinges on how swiftly a sufficient number of people can receive their vaccinations.

My family has flights scheduled for February, late March, and August. Unless something significant changes, I will be canceling the February trip to Cancun. The late March flight is also likely to be canceled, but I remain hopeful. Additionally, I am planning some early summer trips and contemplating our Christmas plans for 2021.

Refundability and flexibility are my top priorities while organizing trips for 2021.

Business trips

Regarding business travel, it may take a bit longer to bounce back.

A business trip necessitates having someone to visit. This implies that most people need to be back in their offices or open to meeting for dinner and drinks. Large conferences will lag even further behind. I've been invited to an in-person conference scheduled for mid-July in Orlando, which feels somewhat ambitious to me, but my optimistic side is thrilled at the thought.

People might return to offices in significant numbers by late spring or early summer, but due to summer vacations, many business trips are likely to be postponed until September.

This suggests that 2022 will be the year airlines and hotels can genuinely start turning a profit. Last-minute business fares and major conventions, along with their substantial catering budgets, are crucial for the bottom line. Unlike previous recessions, corporate America is thriving, so the cost of trips won't be a significant issue.

While some may argue that video conferencing proved so effective over the past year that travel will decrease, it's important to note that nothing can truly replace face-to-face meetings. Zoom fatigue is a genuine issue. The upcoming two years will focus heavily on reconnecting.

Reconnecting with our backyards

The pandemic has reignited America's love for the road trip.

Having lived in Manhattan without a car for 13 years, the pandemic prompted a change. Rather than flying away for the weekend or renting a car for day trips, we decided it was time to purchase our own vehicle. Our summer was filled with hiking, beach outings, and visits to charming towns within a two-hour radius. In the fall, we enjoyed apple picking and exploring outdoor sculpture gardens. This winter, we plan to hit the slopes.

Many families have opted for recreational vehicles, with TPG's Richard Kerr's family being one notable example. You can read about his decision here.

Such purchases come with a hefty price tag and will likely influence travel choices for the coming years.

My family is likely to embark on more hikes, savor New York City's expanded outdoor dining options in the spring, and remind ourselves of the many thrilling activities available within an hour of our home.

Immunity passports and COVID testing

Travel restrictions will still be prevalent in 2021.

Even though many Americans may get vaccinated this year, it doesn't guarantee that we won't transmit COVID-19 to others. The full reopening of borders will take considerable time, particularly in developing countries that won't have access to vaccines as quickly as wealthier nations.

Social distancing protocols will continue to be enforced throughout the year.

Immunity passports - or some form of verification - are likely to be mandatory for international flights. COVID-19 testing will also be required.

Ideally, testing will become quicker, more affordable, and widely accessible, particularly in airports. It’s becoming routine for travelers to undergo testing before and after their journeys. With the addition of at-home testing options, this will likely be a standard procedure for the next 12 to 18 months.

Emerging travel experiences

Since the pandemic began, a common question has been: What will be your first trip?

I suggest we consider a different question: Who will you be traveling with?

I genuinely cherish my wife and daughter. However, after over nine months confined together in our Manhattan apartment, I might be yearning for a guys' getaway to Las Vegas. My wife might fancy a weekend retreat with her friends. We are definitely looking for a kid-free escape as a couple. Additionally, we haven't visited my in-laws in Florida in almost a year, making that a top priority.

The upcoming year promises to be filled with a variety of fresh getaways. Major resorts that are missing out on conferences should consider promoting new family reunion packages. Additionally, the popular singles weekends reminiscent of the 1970s in the Catskills might experience a revival. After being so digital for an extended period, perhaps a classic mixer would be well-received?

Retirees with both the time and resources will embark on luxurious, extended trips where no expense will be spared. This past year has reminded us all of the value of time. This demographic will engage in a new form of "grand tour," visiting multiple countries, staying in top-tier hotels, and employing private guides for exclusive experiences.

Additional Charges

I have been reporting on the travel industry for over a decade. Throughout this time, I've witnessed hotel and airline mergers, economic downturns, soaring jet fuel prices, and the rise of various fees as the industry transitioned to charging extra for numerous services.

Most of the recent changes have not favored consumers. Charges for checked bags, resort fees, and additional costs for using electronic toll collection devices in rental cars are at the top of my concerns.

However, COVID-19 has altered this landscape. Hotels in Las Vegas, such as the Cosmopolitan, are eliminating resort fees. Airlines have largely abandoned change fees and fees for redepositing miles.

They are eager for our business. They are actively seeking our patronage.

Will these changes be permanent? It seems unlikely. Hotels will swiftly reintroduce resort fees. The current rates and fee-free packages are primarily designed to stimulate travel. Once occupancy rates are back to normal, expect every possible charge to return as they try to recover losses from 2020. Travelers must advocate for change with their spending, though I'm not overly optimistic about that.

For airlines, the situation is different. There’s no obligation for them to uphold this commitment, but I believe that change fees will not return to their previous levels. However, if you make modifications within a week or two of your flight—when most people do—there may be a penalty involved.

There will likely be additional new fees introduced to cover the losses. Charges for seat assignments, even in business class, seem to be increasing. I can envision some new surcharges for safety or cleanliness. Furthermore, basic economy fares are expected to come with more limitations by 2022. While there are other fee options available, would you really like me to share those with the airlines?

Similar to how hotels provide complimentary WiFi for direct bookings, airlines will likely only waive change fees for members of their frequent flyer programs who book directly. This will increasingly drive travelers away from Expedia, Priceline, and other third-party booking platforms, pushing them to book directly with airlines.

Regardless of the situation, I view this as a chance for airlines to distinguish themselves from their competitors. Instead of merely competing with ultra-low-cost carriers, I hope the major airlines seize this moment to set themselves apart by being more accommodating to passengers.

Promotions for points and miles

Travelers heading out in the early part of 2021 will encounter a wealth of promotions available.

Hotels and airlines will be competing fiercely to capture every bit of travel business they can.

For example, United is providing elite flyers with a substantial bonus during the first quarter to kickstart their journey toward achieving 2022 status.

World of Hyatt members can earn up to four times the points starting from their first stay through February, along with double elite-qualifying nights.

These promotions are in addition to the reduced criteria for achieving elite status.

Credit card issuers have been providing us with a plethora of bonus miles for using specific cards for our purchases.

For those open to traveling, the early months of the year are expected to feature extremely low airfare and hotel prices, complemented by attractive promotions.

Availability of award tickets

Those points and miles hold no value if you can't use them for a complimentary trip.

Many of us have accumulated a significant number of points. We've canceled trips but continued to use cards with generous bonuses for groceries and home supplies.

Airlines have significantly reduced their schedules, resulting in fewer flights and less available seating. However, this hasn't yet impacted redemption rates.

So far, I've encountered no problems securing good flight availability throughout 2021.

As more travelers begin planning their trips for 2021, those available seats will be snatched up quickly. However, those who plan ahead will find many excellent options.

Hotels cannot reduce their capacity in the same manner as airlines and are likely to have plenty of availability throughout the year, with the exception of major holidays.

Even then, there were some appealing point options available. I recently checked a hotel that charged $1,400 per night for Christmas 2021, yet numerous rooms were accessible for just 20,000 World of Hyatt points each night.

Long-term loyalty

I'm choosing to be optimistic and hope that some brands will view this pandemic as an opportunity to reset their relationship with customers and prioritize long-term loyalty.

Since the inception of frequent flyer programs in the 1980s, there has been a consistent complaint that brands only value relationships based on your travel from January 1 to December 31 of the previous year.

And this remains largely accurate today.

I value that Delta Air Lines permits members to carry over any surplus elite-qualifying miles into the following year. Hilton has recently implemented a similar approach.

Throughout the pandemic, Marriott Bonvoy provided members with bonus elite-qualifying nights according to their 2019 status. (You can find more information here.) This was a clever strategy to support individuals in achieving their lifetime gold or platinum status goals.

World of Hyatt also experimented with this concept, launching a promotion that awarded elite nights spanning two calendar years.

Conversely, many travelers continue to be dissatisfied with how companies have handled widespread cancellations. Some passengers are still awaiting refunds from cruise lines, while millions are left with unused vouchers and travel credits from airlines that may never be redeemed.

Alaska Airlines recognized the issue and enabled its members to exchange the vouchers for miles.

Savvy brands— and I encourage those reading this column to take note— will seize this chance to reevaluate loyalty and concentrate on the long-term relationships travelers cultivate with their brands. This begins with elite qualifications and extends to the benefits. While we all enjoy a complimentary breakfast, I genuinely value what Peninsula Hotels is implementing in 2021: allowing guests to check in and out at any time of the day without any fees.

Enhanced amenities

It's been a challenging year for anyone in the travel sector. Numerous hotels have shut down, potentially for good, along with many restaurants and attractions.

Those who endure are likely to emerge stronger.

Consider the airlines. They have significantly accelerated the retirement of older aircraft. For example, American Airlines has phased out its Boeing 757s and 767s, Airbus A330-300s, and Embraer E190s.

This shift means a larger proportion of the fleet is now more fuel-efficient and newer. The transition to long-haul aircraft like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A350 is hastening. We will also see an increase in the number of new 737 MAX jets, A320s, A321s, and the new A220 operating domestically. On some airlines, such as Delta, this translates to more seatback TVs and quicker WiFi, though it may also lead to reduced legroom on certain carriers.

Travelers at New York's LaGuardia Airport (LGA) will enjoy a brand new terminal that is a far cry from the previous outdated facility. Additionally, progress is accelerating on a new terminal at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). An entirely new airport terminal is also being developed in Salt Lake City (SLC), and Denver (DEN) has opened a new terminal expansion.

Nationwide, numerous airport enhancement projects have been expedited due to decreased travel during the pandemic. When air travel eventually rebounds to 2019 levels, passengers can anticipate a much improved experience at many major airports.

In New York, a remarkable expansion of Penn Station—the busiest train station in the country—is set to greatly enhance the travel experience. The new Moynihan Hall opened its doors on January 1, allowing natural light to illuminate what was once a dreary station.

This new hall aims to rectify one of the most significant architectural missteps: the demolition of the historic Beaux-Arts style Penn Station in 1963. It was replaced by the current station, which lies beneath Madison Square Garden. Each time I disembark from an Amtrak train there, I recall late Yale professor Vincent Scully's poignant remark about the destruction: "Once, we entered the city like gods. Now we scurry in like rats, which is probably what we deserve."

Now, nearly six decades later, sunlight is once again gracing Penn Station.

Biometric technology combined with virtual queuing

In 2020, we witnessed numerous virtual changes to our travel experience that I anticipate will continue. Specifically, many activities transitioned to some form of virtual queuing or advanced, timed ticketing to help with spacing.

Although crowds and lines will eventually return, savvy attractions will leverage technology to enhance spacing and minimize wait times. Biometric boarding will streamline the process of boarding a plane, and virtual lines will make the Disney World experience more enjoyable. The option to order food directly from our phones at crowded theme parks or ski resorts will also improve efficiency and overall enjoyment.

As social distancing measures ease, I foresee an increase in technology-driven interactions for travelers. Technologies like QR codes existed before the pandemic, but COVID-19 accelerated their adoption, pushing aside any privacy concerns.

Having experienced the benefits, I believe these innovations will continue to grow in popularity over the coming year.

Key Takeaway

Travel in 2021 will likely experience many ups and downs. Flexibility will be crucial for travelers.

There is significant pent-up demand, and those who are healthy and financially capable will be the first to take to the skies.

However, don't anticipate an overwhelming surge in travel. It will be a gradual and steady increase, punctuated by some notable setbacks. By summer, vacationers are expected to be out in numbers, but trips won't feel quite "normal." Business travel will take longer to rebound.

Many of the changes made during the pandemic are likely to remain permanent. Ideally, airlines will continue to maintain rigorous cleaning protocols, as will hotels. While I hope to see fees eliminated, I understand that the economics may not allow for that to be a lasting change.

The technological advancements introduced over the past year will only continue to gain momentum.

Hopefully, we will all take a moment to reconsider our reasons for traveling, the people we visit, and our perspective on the world. If there's one lesson the pandemic has imparted, it's the significance of human connection and how travel enriches our understanding of others. As we set out in 2021, I encourage everyone to approach their journeys with a fresh perspective and appreciate the privilege of being able to travel.