What Caused the Decline in Air Travel?

Just over two years after travel plummeted, passengers are finally returning to airplanes in numbers that resemble those seen before the pandemic. You might think the airline industry and travelers making long-awaited trips should be celebrating, but that’s not the case. Two years on, the Great Travel Rebound has been a complete disaster.

From January to May 2022, 88,161 domestic flights in the U.S. were canceled, as per data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics released last week—16,116 more cancellations than the same period in 2019. The only time in the last decade that the first five months of the year experienced more cancellations was in 2020. Most cancellations were from major U.S. carriers—American, Delta, and United—who also carry the highest passenger volumes in the country.

“Despite the strongest demand and revenue landscape we’ve seen, the operational conditions across the industry remain particularly difficult,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian stated during the airline's recent earnings call. He expressed apologies “to those affected by cancellations, delays, and extended wait times in the past two months.”

Of the flights that took off between January and May, 2 percent faced delays, up slightly from 22.1 percent three years earlier. More concerning is the surge in passenger complaints. In May 2022, the U.S. Department of Transportation received 4,344 complaints about air travel services—a staggering 237 percent increase from the 1,289 complaints logged in May 2019. One-third of these complaints were about refunds, while 24 percent related to cancellations, delays, and scheduling problems.

“There’s understandable frustration among many people given the high number of disruptions to their travel plans—especially for those who may be taking their first trip in years,” says Scott Keyes, founder and chief flight expert at Scott’s Cheap Flights. “Having those plans interrupted by cancellations or significant delays is really disheartening.”

Keyes adds that airlines might claim they were “optimistic amid uncertainty” about how many flights they could handle in 2022. He explains that, during normal times, creating a flight schedule months ahead was not particularly challenging since past years provided a fairly reliable indication of booking trends.

Using historical data to inform scheduling decisions for the upcoming year “has not been feasible for the past couple of years. Making these types of informed predictions is now more about guessing than actual knowledge.”

In light of the ongoing operational difficulties, Delta will maintain its flight capacity at June levels for the rest of 2022. Recently, United announced it would be cutting 50 departures daily from its Newark schedule starting July 1 and continuing through the summer, representing a 12 percent reduction at that hub. Other airlines have responded to the surge in demand—and the resulting cancellations and delays—by preemptively reducing their flight schedules. This spring, JetBlue Airways cut its summer schedule by 10 percent. Alaska Airlines reduced its flights by about 2 percent through June to lessen disruptions, and Southwest Airlines removed approximately 8,000 flights from its June schedule after cutting 14,500 flights from March to May.

Ongoing impacts of the pandemic

To grasp the challenges of 2022, we need to reflect on the extraordinary circumstances of 2020, according to Laurie Garrow, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology and president of AGIFORS, an organization dedicated to airline research.

“In March 2020, global demand plummeted by 90 to 95 percent,” Garrow states. “We had never encountered such a severe and lasting decline in demand. During such an extreme drop, airlines had to make tough decisions to maintain operations while cutting costs.”

To secure $54 billion in federal pandemic support, U.S. airlines were prohibited from layoffs but could offer buyouts and early retirement packages, which many workers accepted. Consequently, airlines ceased hiring, cutting off the influx of new pilots, crew, and essential staff needed for the recovery in travel.

“This hiring freeze and the loss of pilots meant that when travel demand surged again, airlines were caught off guard and understaffed, now struggling to recover,” explains Keyes.

The staffing issues extend beyond pilots; every aspect of air travel is affected, including baggage handlers and air traffic controllers (who are employed by the Federal Aviation Administration in the U.S.). These shortages have exacerbated the situation, resulting in famously long lines at airports and significant amounts of lost luggage.

Compounding the staffing challenges is the difficulty of returning thousands of aircraft that were grounded in 2020 back into service.

“By May 2020, the U.S. airline industry had parked half of its aircraft fleet,” Garrow notes. “It’s unprecedented for us to have taken out such a large portion of capacity from our system.” She mentions that since then, around 25 percent of the total aircraft capacity has been reintegrated in 2021, and “we expect to bring the rest back in 2022.”

In the interim, airlines are faced with the challenge of balancing high demand against significantly reduced supply.

Why did airlines continue to sell seats despite the staff and resource shortages?

Given that airlines start scheduling flights and selling tickets up to 11 months in advance, one might wonder: Did they not calculate the future needs a year earlier when flights began to fill up? Couldn’t they have anticipated the shortfall in pilots, aircraft, and logistics necessary to accommodate the number of flights they were marketing?

“Airlines create their schedules based on anticipated demand and their available resources. For every ticket sold in advance, they generate proceeds that can be used for staffing this year, purchasing fuel for upcoming flights, and securing deposits on aircraft,” explains Robert Mann of R.W. Mann & Company, Inc. “The real issue arises when unexpected demand exceeds their projections.”

Delta’s Bastian acknowledged that airlines aimed too high to recover from two years of pandemic losses and misjudged the level of demand. “We probably pushed ourselves too far,” he stated in an interview with the Associated Press.

When airlines witnessed a surge in demand, they did everything possible to capitalize on it by adopting an overly optimistic schedule, notes Keyes. He believes part of the problem stemmed from losing not just pilots and crew but also experienced corporate staff who could manage the complexities of future flight planning.

He highlighted that a less experienced employee handling airline scheduling in 2021 likely noticed the significant uptick in travel and booking rates.

“Will you have the maturity to think, ‘I shouldn’t sell as many flights as I want because I’m unsure we can operate them?’ Absolutely not,” Keyes asserts. “You aim to maximize revenue and hope the rest of the airline can resolve the pilot shortage and other issues to fulfill this ambitious schedule you created in response to travel demand. Clearly, that hasn’t unfolded as planned.”

Adding to the frustration, air travelers have been shelling out more for the highly unpredictable and often underwhelming travel experience of 2022. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported that, when adjusted for inflation, airfares in the first quarter of 2022 surged by 17 percent compared to the same quarter in 2021. However, June marked the first month this year where airfares experienced a slight month-over-month decrease, dropping by 1.8 percent, as per the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

When can we expect air travel to get better?

There are signs that airline performance is beginning to improve after a tough first half of the year. In July, cancellations fell to only 1.6 percent of total scheduled flights, down from 2.7 percent in June, according to flight tracking service FlightAware.

To quickly rebuild their workforce, airlines are getting inventive. In June, American Airlines boosted pilot pay for its understaffed regional carriers by over 50 percent. Recently, Delta announced a partnership with private jet operator Wheels Up, allowing pilots in training to log flight hours there, speeding up their path to full-time roles. Delta aims to hire and train over 2,400 pilots this year.

However, attracting new pilots continues to be a significant challenge in the current environment.

“I consider myself fortunate,” shares a pilot of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner regarding his ability to retain his job during the pandemic by operating long-haul cargo flights instead of carrying passengers. Preferring to remain anonymous as he continues flying for a major international airline, he emphasizes that the current situation for pilots, even those who avoided furloughs or early retirement, is far from ideal.

“Airlines aim to sell tickets at the lowest prices to attract travelers. The downside to this approach is that cuts must happen somewhere, and salaries are often a significant target,” he explains. While he acknowledges the perks of being a pilot—such as traveling to stunning destinations worldwide—much of the glamour is fading. Pilots and crew find themselves in increasingly subpar hotels, with reduced downtime between flights, and shorter trips overall.

Furthermore, he notes that new pilots today will never reach the salary levels enjoyed by their predecessors during the “glory days of the ’80s and ’90s.”

Despite ongoing hiring and recruitment challenges, many experts remain hopeful that the upcoming months will be calmer.

“I’m cautiously optimistic that within the next month, certainly by summer's end, airlines will enhance their operational performance and be well-prepared for fall,” states Garrow. She acknowledges that while bad weather will always create obstacles, she believes 2022 has provided crucial lessons for airlines that will lead to meaningful improvements in service.

Air analyst Mann believes that the challenges in air travel will stabilize by next year. He mentions, “2023 is likely a year of resolution, but that offers little comfort to those affected by flight cancellations this year.”

Keyes suggests that while some difficulties may still arise, travelers should keep the current crisis in perspective. “Most flights are still running,” he states, encouraging travelers not to abandon their long-planned vacations due to fears of cancellations or delays, as the odds remain in their favor.

Although airlines are increasing their workforce and the government is hiring more air traffic controllers, travelers should remain cautious. It’s advisable to keep their proverbial (and literal) seat belts fastened as turbulence may still occur.

During last week’s earnings call, United CEO Scott Kirby emphasized, “We need to address three potential risks in the coming 6 to 18 months,” which include operational challenges across the industry that could impact capacity, soaring fuel prices, and the looming threat of a global recession.

Reporting contributed by the Associated Press.