Will Air Taxis Truly Take Flight in Our Future?

On a bright autumn afternoon in 2023, a strange object resembling a colossal insect appeared over lower Manhattan. For about six minutes, it buzzed just above the Hudson River at a low altitude. Those watching from below may not have noticed the sole pilot inside, but his presence emphasized the aim of the demonstration. While earlier tests of this electric air taxi had been without a pilot, having a human on board could transform it from a sci-fi dream into a tangible reality—bringing us closer to a day when all four passenger seats would be filled with fare-paying riders.

Gathered at a landing pad were key figures eager to witness the demo. "This is simply astonishing, it’s the next big thing," exclaimed New York Mayor Eric Adams. "We’ll be able to travel faster to and from our destinations, and we’ll do so in a clean, eco-friendly manner." Unlike the much-maligned helicopters that city residents dislike, this electric air taxi would operate quietly and without carbon emissions, he noted. Plus, it might even be budget-friendly, with an aerial rideshare eventually costing about as much as a traditional ride on the ground.

The highlight of the event was the cutting-edge “S4” aircraft from Joby Aviation, a Silicon Valley tech company now valued at $1 billion, backed by investors like Delta Air Lines, which aims to offer these taxis as a bonus for passengers. Archer Aviation, another manufacturer from the Bay Area, has partnered with United Airlines, which has ordered 100 of the company’s four-seat “Midnight” aircraft.

Other significant airlines, including American, Japan Airlines, and Lufthansa, are also entering the fray, and Blade, which currently operates an app-based helicopter service to airports, is experimenting with its own flying taxis. These various collaborations could ultimately form an extensive network of air taxi services, similar to ride-hailing cars on the ground. If everything goes as planned, they may start transporting passengers from downtown vertiports in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and other major cities to key airports as soon as next year.

It won't be a walk in the park. German company Volocopter has conducted test flights in various U.S. cities, including New York, where it shared the spotlight with Joby last fall. Since 2021, they have been striving to secure approval for launching air taxi services during the upcoming Summer Olympic Games in Paris in late July. However, the response in the French capital has been notably less welcoming than in New York. That same week in November, Parisian lawmakers pledged to oppose the initiative—which involves constructing a landing pad on a barge in the Seine River, among other plans. Paris Deputy Mayor Dan Lert, responsible for climate initiatives, criticized the proposal as “a completely unnecessary gimmick for a few privileged individuals in a hurry.” (The debate was ongoing at press time.)

Will 2024 be the year that the electric air taxi industry finally takes flight, or will it remain stagnant? The signs are still encouraging: over the past two years, the sector has drawn in approximately $6 billion in investments. Unlike Paris, numerous cities worldwide, from São Paulo to Singapore, are eager to be among the first to adopt this technology. Of the many startups presenting their air taxi concepts, around a dozen are moving into more advanced stages, initiating factories to mass-produce these vehicles, such as a Joby facility under construction in Dayton, Ohio, with significant investment from Toyota. (Stellantis, another major automaker, has a similar partnership with Archer.)

By 2030, the eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) industry could generate $3 billion in annual revenue from 70,000 daily passengers, according to research from global consulting firm McKinsey; some estimates suggest that by 2040, there could be 50,000 electric air taxis in operation globally. Yet, as of early 2024, none of these vehicles have received certification from any government regulatory body for commercial use outside of China, which has authorized EHang Technology's plan for fully autonomous (i.e., without a human pilot) passenger-carrying air taxis. So, what are the next steps?

Futuristic ideas of "flying cars" and personal aircraft parked in garages are not new; they represent the kind of dream that fuels inventors and entrepreneurs. Many have attempted, and a few came close to success—like Molt Taylor, an engineer near Seattle who conceived the idea while working for the military and built his first flying car in 1950, well before the Jetsons cartoon made the concept famous in the 1960s.

Taylor's "Aerocar" featured a sleek red chassis with retractable wings and a tailfin that would be towed by the vehicle and deployed when it was time to take off. It could reach speeds of 60 mph on the ground and 100 mph in the air; in 1956, Taylor secured design approval from the Civil Aeronautics Board (the Federal Aviation Administration later took over its safety responsibilities). “These were created during a time when optimism was high and anything seemed possible,” wrote Jake Schulz, a technical analyst at Boeing, in his book Aerocar, A Drive in the Clouds. Taylor himself expressed a vision of “looking up and seeing the sky filled with Aerocars,” predicting that hundreds would hit the market once the aerospace sector embraced the idea.

It didn't quite pan out. In the end, only six Aerocars were produced and sold at around $14,000 each, one of which went to actor Bob Cummings, who used it as a high-tech prop on his television show. The remaining models, along with other flying car prototypes, can now be found in aviation museums, such as the Museum of Flight in Seattle.

Fast forward to 2024, and the contemporary incarnation of the flying car is the eVTOL: a battery-powered aircraft that can take off and land like a helicopter while flying like a small airplane. In terms of size and function, eVTOLs resemble puddle jumpers more than jetliners. Due to the limitations of battery capacity for electric propulsion, the most practical designs are compact crafts accommodating two to eight passengers, capable of traveling up to 200 miles at around 150 mph without needing a recharge. They promise to be quieter, more sustainable, and eventually more cost-effective than the helicopters they aim to replace. Their applications are diverse, including search and rescue missions, cargo transport, and aerial sightseeing. For many, this has been a long-held dream.

In the late 2000s, the somewhat awkward acronym eVTOL (pronounced ee-vee-toll) gained traction among aviation enthusiasts, likely due to a prominent NASA project that became well-known after a video went viral. While flying cars were seen as an entertaining novelty, the vision of eco-friendly urban air taxis captured the public's imagination. The eVTOL era was upon us.

To advance to the next phase, a visionary was essential. Enter JoeBen Bevirt, a Stanford-trained engineer and tech prodigy. Raised in a remote area called Last Chance in Northern California, he was named after a character in the novel Sometimes a Great Notion, written by family friend Ken Kesey. As a child, he aspired to create his own aircraft, and he invented a new type of suspension mountain bike while still in high school.

By the time he reached his mid-20s, Bevirt had established his first startup. One of his inventions quickly gained popularity: the “gorilla pod,” a portable tripod cherished by photographers around the world.

A few years later, Bevirt experienced a pivotal moment when he returned to his childhood aspiration—a new approach to flying. In 2009, he launched Joby Aviation and teamed up with fellow engineers in the Bay Area, working in makeshift quarters they dubbed “the barn,” reminiscent of Steve Jobs’ garage during Apple's early days. There, they began developing a flying car prototype, enabled by a breakthrough in technology that was revolutionizing everything from cars to drones: electric propulsion.

The eVTOL concept not only captured the interest of other entrepreneurs but also garnered significant attention from disruptors in the industry. In 2016, Uber published what would later be considered a groundbreaking white paper titled “Fast-Forwarding to a Future of On-Demand Urban Air Transportation.” While some dismissed it as a “crazy stunt” to inflate the company’s valuation before its much-anticipated IPO, as noted by Michael Hirschberg, executive director of the Vertical Flight Society, Uber soon demonstrated its seriousness. The “fast-forwarding” in the paper's title referred to what some experts viewed as an unrealistic timeline for establishing a global movement for electric air taxis in major cities, a vision well-suited for Uber’s app-based ride-sharing model. This paved the way for the creation of Uber Elevate, which introduced an Uber Copter service in New York in 2019. Leading that initiative was aerospace engineer Eric Allison, who earned a PhD from Stanford and has worked with several aviation startups. After Joby Aviation acquired Uber Elevate in 2020, he took on the role of head of product at Joby.

In late 2023, Allison, who spoke with Dinogo following several successful test flights at Joby, expressed confidence that Joby’s air taxis would be operational by 2025, likely starting with a partnership with Delta to transport passengers to airports in New York City and Los Angeles, bookable via the Delta app. (Joby will also offer its aerial ride-sharing service through its own app for other customers.)

However, he acknowledges that there is still much work ahead: “Bringing about a new form of transportation is a significant challenge,” Allison states. The goal of the test flights in key cities is “to ensure we have everything in order. We are closely monitoring the feedback we receive—it’s essential to engage with the community.”

This brings us to the question of noise: Are these aircraft completely silent? Allison clarifies that the sound produced is more akin to “white noise” rather than the distinct “wup wup wup” of a helicopter. Aviation expert Vance Hilderman, CEO of Afuzion, an aerospace certification firm, states that the noise level of current eVTOL prototypes is about one-tenth that of a helicopter operating in an urban setting. However, skeptics will need reassurance; thus, the public can anticipate more demonstrations in the upcoming months.

Then there’s the power supply concern: eVTOLs will require charging stations to replenish their batteries, ensuring they have enough energy to remain airborne for several hours or longer. Allison mentioned that addressing this issue is a key focus in the race to launch. In New York, for instance, the city has already solicited bids for projects to install electric charging stations at two existing heliports.

The Uber model will significantly influence how this new form of travel is marketed to consumers. According to Joby, it will resemble a ride-hailing app; the only difference is the vehicle type. But is this really groundbreaking? After all, you can currently reach the airport via traditional helicopters. Hilderman notes, “As a helicopter alternative or enhancement, yes, that’s somewhat mundane. It’s evident that, at this point, they are targeting an affluent market.”

Gail Grimmett, Delta’s senior vice president of sustainability performance, strongly disputes the idea that this service is exclusively for the wealthy. “This is absolutely not just for the super-rich,” she asserts. Initially, Delta and Joby plan to offer the service primarily to Delta customers, but at Uber-like pricing—starting with the higher “Black” fare tier (around $200 for a one-way trip from Manhattan to JFK Airport, for instance)—with the goal of reducing prices as the service grows. Naturally, the journey won’t be direct from home to the airport. After booking the ride, a car will take you to the nearest vertiport, where you’ll board the eVTOL for a short flight to the airport. The extent of time saved for travelers, and the cost of that convenience, remains to be seen.

The reactions of communities situated beneath the flight paths of these eVTOLs are another important factor to consider. The FAA has already assembled a team to assess the impact on densely populated areas. Some analysts worry that, similar to Uber’s underestimation of the backlash against its rideshare services in certain regions, air taxis might be rushed to market without fully considering their effects on local residents.

“The challenge is that mayors of large cities often want to project an image of innovation,” stated Kevin DeGood, director of infrastructure policy at the Center for American Progress, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. “They’re always worried about missing out, especially with all the hype surrounding this technology.” He raises concerns that these flying cars might not be as environmentally friendly as claimed, and they could undermine support for more sustainable travel options like light rail. Another significant issue is how air traffic control will handle flight paths in increasingly crowded airspace.

The FAA is, if anything, exercising greater caution than usual, particularly after an Alaska Airlines incident in early January scrutinized the entire aviation regulatory framework. By late 2023, the FAA had already issued new guidelines for eVTOL approvals, which some observers interpreted as introducing an additional layer of oversight.

Key considerations include noise levels, the locations of necessary “vertiports” (with suggestions for rooftops of office buildings, parking garages, or even boats), their integration into existing air traffic control systems, and most critically, safety. Major safety concerns revolve around who will pilot these vehicles and what protocols are in place for emergencies. “That’s a topic that hasn’t been adequately addressed,” Hilderman notes. “These low-flying vehicles will be operating in busy airspace, so what’s the plan for a quick landing?”

Regarding approvals, Jessica Sypniewski, a senior FAA official, succinctly stated at the FAA’s inaugural Advanced Air Mobility symposium in August 2023: “We’ll be prepared when the air taxi developers are ready to operate safely.”