Will Flight Cancellations Impact Holiday Travel?

As travelers prepare for the holiday season, many are wondering: Will the mass cancellations from summer and fall persist during the busy holiday travel period?

At the very least, flights will be full: Air travel volume this Thanksgiving approached pre-pandemic levels, with the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screening nearly 21 million passengers during the 10-day holiday window. The agency indicated that it expects “high travel volumes” to persist into the December holiday season.

AAA, which monitors all forms of transportation, reported that air travel during the year-end holidays is projected to see a staggering 184 percent increase, nearly doubling the figures from 2020 when many opted to stay home or drive instead of flying.

For those flying, the prospect of navigating crowded terminals and competing for overhead bin space on completely full flights is hardly a joyful thought. The biggest unknown, experts warn, is whether the wave of cancellations and delays that plagued air travel over the summer and into fall will also impact holiday travel.

The positive takeaway is that if the Thanksgiving holiday period served as a trial for the upcoming Christmas and New Year rush, there were no significant flight cancellations reported in late November.

However, it’s hard to ignore the concerning trends from summer and fall: In late October, American Airlines canceled over 1,900 flights in a single weekend, citing a perfect storm of adverse weather and staffing shortages. This came after significant disruptions at Southwest earlier that month, which resulted in 2,000 flight cancellations due to various setbacks, including air traffic control outages. There’s also uncertainty about how many pilots and flight attendants are available to work.

“It’s the convergence of all these factors occurring with great intensity,” Brad Hawkins, a spokesperson for Southwest, told Dinogo.

Flight disruptions have become increasingly frequent this year as major airlines contend with rising demand. While some delays can be linked to severe weather, staffing shortages are also complicating matters, according to airline insiders. With flights operating close to 90 percent capacity during peak times (like holidays and weekends), rebooking can be challenging if issues arise.

The shortage of pilots, many of whom opted for early retirement during the pandemic, “will continue to be a challenge” for the foreseeable future, according to Helane Becker, an airline analyst at New York-based securities firm Cowen.

Consequently, major airlines will need to recruit between 35,000 and 40,000 new pilots by the end of this decade—“a significant number,” Becker remarked at a recent Phocuswright travel technology conference in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Becker also pointed out that there are numerous unfilled skilled positions, such as licensed aircraft mechanics, which are contributing to delays at airports.

While major domestic airlines are currently in the process of hiring flight crews, some analysts believe they shouldn’t have expanded their schedules so rapidly without sufficient staffing. “If you publish a schedule, you’re expected to stick to it,” states William McGee, an aviation expert and author of the book Attention All Passengers.

Prevent getting stuck at the airport with these tips

There are several strategies to minimize your chances of experiencing flight delays and cancellations. Here are some expert tips and tricks.

Opt for the earliest flight available. “The first flight of the day is more crucial now than ever,” McGee advises. “You should aim for that 6 a.m. departure,” as delays often accumulate as the day progresses.

Opt for a nonstop flight instead of a connecting one if possible, even if it comes with a higher fare. As McGee points out, “Why increase your chances of encountering issues if you can sidestep them?”

Arrive at the airport earlier than usual. Full flights mean that any disruptions can significantly affect overall operations. “As load factors rise, the system tends to collapse when problems arise,” McGee notes.

Southwest is also advising travelers to arrive earlier than normal and to prepare for crowded conditions at every stage of their journey. “Travelers may encounter unexpected delays due to limited parking and long security lines, well before reaching their gate,” the airline warns.

Add some extra time if your flight falls on one of the busiest days during the holiday season. According to flight booking site Hopper, the peak travel day will be Thursday, December 23, followed by Sunday, January 2.

Hopper also suggests flying in a day early for special events: advice that many travelers seem to be heeding this year.

Understand your rights as a traveler

Airlines do not guarantee their flight schedules, and travelers should be mindful of this when planning their trips, as stated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, which offers a “fly rights” manual on its website.

Airlines aren’t obligated to compensate passengers for delays or cancellations resulting from factors outside their control, such as bad weather. They also aren’t required to refund passengers who choose to cancel or change their flights. However, U.S. law mandates compensation for passengers who are involuntarily bumped from an oversold flight or affected by airline-related issues, like operational or staffing problems.

Each airline has its own policy regarding assistance for delayed passengers, ranging from providing snacks to covering hotel costs. If you receive no assistance, adopting a proactive approach often helps.

Steps to take if your flight is canceled

If your flight gets canceled, most airlines will rebook you at no charge on their next available flight. With advancements in airline technology, you can often manage this through your carrier’s app on your smartphone or at a self-service kiosk in the airport. Some airlines are enhancing customer service; for instance, American offers stranded passengers a special number that promises to connect them with a reservations agent in under 30 seconds.

Keep in mind: If the airline cancels your flight, you are entitled to a full refund, even if your ticket is nonrefundable.

This article was originally published on July 8, 2021, and has been updated to reflect current information.