Air Travel Faces a Significant Issue That Will Require Years to Resolve

Last week, as weather challenges and airline staffing issues disrupted air travel once more, travelers anticipating a smooth post-summer season received troubling news: the air traffic controller shortage is so critical that it could impair airline operations for the next five years—or longer, as noted by industry experts.

Just how severe is the situation? Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg disclosed earlier this year that there are approximately 3,000 vacant controller roles in a workforce that should consist of over 14,000 full-time employees. Currently, around 11,000 controllers are on duty, with several thousand undergoing training. This shortfall is especially impactful in vital areas like New York City, where its three major airports—JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark—experience some of the worst delays in the nation and are often cited as responsible for nearly half of all delays across the country.

At a crucial Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) facility in New York, only 54 percent of available controller roles are filled, prompting the agency to ask airlines to voluntarily reduce their flights by about 10 percent in the region—initially set to last until September 15. The FAA has recently acknowledged that this temporary measure was insufficient and has extended the flight reduction program for an additional year. It remains uncertain how much impact this had, if any, on what many travelers experienced as another summer of chaos.

This situation caused significant concern at an aviation conference in Washington last week, where several airline leaders expressed that the resulting uncertainty regarding system capacity could hinder effective scheduling. JetBlue CEO Robin Hayes notably stated, “We’re selling tickets for flights we know we won’t be able to operate due to ATC [air traffic control] issues.”

Right after Labor Day, Secretary Buttigieg shared some encouraging news: 1,500 air traffic controllers have been recruited this year due to a proactive hiring campaign and an increase in starting salaries to $127,000 annually. However, he warned the public that immediate improvements shouldn’t be expected, as the extensive training process can take up to three years, similar to obtaining a law degree.

A potential government shutdown now threatens the secretary’s strategy to enhance training; while the existing full-time controllers, classified as essential safety personnel, wouldn’t face major disruptions, the onboarding of new hires might come to a standstill (as occurred during the 2019 shutdown).

What led to the severe air traffic controller shortage?

The prevailing cause of the current crisis, as noted by numerous industry and government experts, can be attributed to one major factor: COVID. This has resulted in a surge of retirements, alongside worries about virus transmission within air traffic control facilities and training environments, hindering the FAA's ability to keep the necessary number of controllers in critical positions, according to a recent audit by the Department of Transportation Inspector General.

However, critics argue that this conclusion oversimplifies the issue. They contend that the factors leading us to this situation were already in motion long before the pandemic struck the aviation industry in 2020.

In reality, complaints about the poor state of the nation’s air traffic control system are not a recent phenomenon: 15 years ago, a lack of controllers and increasing flight delays brought the issue to the forefront of then president-elect Barack Obama’s priorities. In 2008, a major concern was that controllers had spent two years without a contract, leading to significant workplace burnout. (The controllers’ union secured a contract with improved pay and conditions the following year.) Over the last decade, federal efforts have intensified with the ongoing “Next Gen” initiative aimed at replacing outdated ground-based radar systems with satellite technology for aircraft navigation—but this project remains unfinished.

Some argue that the origins of the current crisis trace back even further, to August 4, 1981, when 12,000 controllers went on strike after their requests for shorter work hours and better pay were denied. President Reagan infamously fired them (as federal employees, they are legally prohibited from striking); this left airlines to ground a third of their fleets while new controllers were hastily trained and deployed. Within three years, about 9,000 replacements were on duty (many of the strikers did not return), and this mass hiring created a demographic bubble that continues to have repercussions, resulting in periodic shortages when the majority of controllers reach the retirement age of 56. (Controllers can retire after 20 years if they are over 50 or at any time after 25 years of service.) Currently, some controllers report working 60-hour weeks and having to delay vacations.

“They are overwhelmed, stressed, and some harbor resentment over their inability to take time off,” states William McGee, senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project. “One must consider the long-term effects on morale and the potential risks to safety.”

Are there safety risks for air travelers due to the ongoing staffing crisis?

Runway “incursions”—described by the FAA as the “incorrect presence” of an aircraft or other moving object on an active runway—are becoming a growing concern within the industry.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is currently looking into seven runway incidents from the first half of 2023 that it considers “serious,” indicating a potential for catastrophic outcomes. In February, two planes nearly collided at Austin Bergstrom Airport, and there was another close call at San Diego’s airport more recently. Additionally, there are many more alarming ground incidents that often go unreported; in July alone, there were 46 such occurrences, as noted in an investigation by the New York Times.

“There’s no denying that we are witnessing too many near misses,” FAA management remarked earlier this year in a statement to its workforce.

While air traffic controllers are not solely responsible for all runway incidents—they share accountability with pilots and wayward airport vehicles—the ongoing staffing crisis in control towers exacerbates the situation. Although tragedy has been averted in these cases and the system has functioned as intended, the FAA has initiated a series of runway safety meetings at 90 airports across the United States to help prevent future incidents.

What solutions are in place to tackle air traffic challenges?

A hopeful sign is the recent nomination of Michael Whitaker as FAA administrator, a position that has remained unfilled for over a year and a half. Whitaker, an experienced airline executive with previous FAA experience, has garnered strong backing from the aviation community. Notably, Rich Santa, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, urged the nominee to “tackle the persistent controller staffing crisis and address recent safety incidents.”

The pending FAA reauthorization legislation also proposes additional funding to strengthen the ranks of air traffic controllers.

However, even with anticipated aggressive hiring, it will take several years before a new cohort of controllers can significantly alleviate the shortage. Meanwhile, the public continues to await the fully modernized air traffic management system that was promised decades ago as part of the “NextGen” initiative. The objective is straightforward: to enable planes to fly closer together without compromising safety.

To achieve this, the intricate U.S. air travel system—which includes over 5,000 commercial airports, 520 air traffic control towers, and 45,000 daily flights—is transitioning from an outdated World War II–era radar network to a modern space-based tracking system. With advanced technology, aircraft can transmit their positions to GPS satellites, which then relay this information to other aircraft and controllers, offering a more precise view of the airspace. This updated system will enable more aircraft to take off and land simultaneously at busy airports and will assist in preventing runway incursions. However, the progress of this ambitious initiative has seen fluctuations, often impacted by disputes over funding responsibilities.

Yet, once it is fully implemented, one crucial element will still be essential: a sufficient number of air traffic controllers to oversee flights.