As Europe faces a spike in coronavirus cases, bars and pubs are shutting down, with experts questioning whether the approach will be effective.

With Europe now reporting higher coronavirus numbers than the United States, Brazil, and India combined, governments are closing or restricting the hours of pubs and bars to prevent widespread lockdowns, according to World Health Organization data.

It's a tough blow for drinkers from Brussels to Paris to Edinburgh and will add further strain on the struggling hospitality industry. But will this strategy prove successful?

In Berlin, renowned for its vibrant nightlife, bars will stay open but new rules, starting Saturday, require them to close by 11 p.m., along with restaurants and shops.

From 11 p.m. to 6 a.m., only five people can gather in a group, and indoor gatherings are limited to no more than 10 people at a time. These measures are expected to remain in place through at least the end of October.

Stefan Zenow, the 41-year-old owner of two bars in Berlin – one in the bustling Friedrichshain party district and another in the more relaxed Prenzlauer Berg – sees the new restrictions as a major setback.

His once-thriving business has been struggling to stay afloat since Germany's earlier lockdown, and he fears it could be forced to close entirely without further government support.

‘This is a huge step backwards,’ he says. ‘We’re losing money every month, but we’ve been trying to keep going. With these new restrictions, we’re unsure if that will be possible. I believe this curfew will last until at least March or April next year.’

He’s now considering earlier opening hours in an attempt to salvage some business.

‘Normally, we open at 8 p.m. in summer and stay open until the last customer leaves. In winter, it’s usually 7 p.m. But with the curfew in place, we’re thinking of opening at 5 p.m. to cater to people on their way home from work. It’s a model already used in Australia, but I’m not sure how well it will work in a city like Berlin,’ he adds.

Zenow remains doubtful that the new restrictions will be effective.

‘It’s a fundamental human need to gather and celebrate together,’ he says. ‘I don’t think people will enjoy being told what they can’t do. In my opinion, they will continue to party. Banning controlled gatherings won’t solve the issue! You can’t expect young people in their 20s and 30s to stop partying. This new law might even backfire, leading people to meet privately for parties instead.’

However, Health Minister Jens Spahn cautioned on Thursday that now is not the time for Germany to let its guard down.

‘No other country in Europe has managed the crisis as well as we have so far, but we cannot risk losing everything we’ve gained,’ he warned.

‘The situation in Berlin demonstrates how careless and sometimes reckless behavior during the pandemic can quickly worsen the situation,’ he added.

Brussels orders bars to close for one month

Other countries are implementing more severe measures as they struggle to balance the economic impact with mounting pressure on healthcare systems.

Bars and cafes in Belgium's capital, Brussels, were instructed to shut down for a month starting Thursday in an effort to curb the rapidly rising infection rates.

Professional and amateur sports clubs are also required to close their bars for a month, and the consumption of alcohol in public spaces is prohibited across the entire Brussels region, as announced by Minister-President Rudi Vervoort on Wednesday.

Brussels now ranks as the second-most affected European capital, following Madrid and Paris, with 505 cases per 100,000 residents, according to official Yves Van Laethem during a coronavirus update.

This decision was made a day after the government imposed stricter restrictions on Belgium's 11.5 million residents. People are now limited to socializing with only three individuals per month, while private indoor gatherings are capped at four. Outdoor gatherings, excluding those from the same household, are also restricted to four. Cafes and restaurants can serve only four people per table and must close by 11 p.m.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo explained that the measures were introduced to 'prevent a nationwide lockdown' due to the 'very concerning' spread of the virus.

As COVID-19 cases surge in neighboring France, Paris has ordered its bars and cafes to close for two weeks starting Tuesday. Restaurants can remain open only if they adhere to stringent hygiene and social distancing protocols, according to the health ministry.

Four more cities – Lille, Lyon, Grenoble, and Saint-Etienne – were ordered to close bars, gyms, and sports centers starting Saturday as France reported a record 18,746 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday. Toulouse and Montpellier are also facing 'worrying' infection levels, and could be the next cities to face similar restrictions, according to Health Minister Olivier Veran.

Bars in Marseille, located on France's Mediterranean coast, were already closed last month as case numbers surged in the area.

Stricter anti-coronavirus measures were also implemented in Madrid and surrounding cities in Spain last Friday. The new rules require residents to stay at home except for work, education, legal obligations, or emergencies.

Shops, bars, and restaurants are required to reduce capacity by 50%, provide table service only, and close earlier. Bars and restaurants must close by 11 p.m., with the last entry allowed an hour before closing.

Even Iceland, which nearly eradicated the virus over the summer, is now experiencing a surge in infections. On Monday, the country ordered a two-week nationwide closure of bars, nightclubs, fitness centers, and gaming establishments, while limiting gatherings to just 20 people.

Peter Drobac, a global health expert and director of the Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School, told Dinogo that European governments are trying to strike a balance between imposing social restrictions and preserving businesses.

Bars, nightclubs, and restaurants are ‘prime candidates’ for closure due to what we know about virus transmission, he explained.

‘In most cases, important clusters emerge in indoor, crowded environments where there’s prolonged contact between people,’ he said. Activities like talking, laughing, and drinking alcohol only increase the risk of transmission.

‘We must consider both social value and social cost when deciding what to keep open and what to close. It's a difficult balancing act, but if we had to choose between keeping bars or schools open, most people would prioritize schools.’

Scottish pubs to stop serving alcohol indoors

Scotland is enforcing strict restrictions from Friday on the sale of alcohol indoors as the country faces an increase in COVID-19 cases.

For the next 16 days, pubs, bars, cafes, and restaurants in Scotland will be prohibited from serving alcohol indoors, as announced by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Wednesday. These venues will also need to close by 6 p.m., with the exception of hotel restaurants serving guests.

While licensed venues can still serve alcohol outdoors, this is limited by the country's 10 p.m. curfew. In central Scotland, including Glasgow and Edinburgh, all licensed venues will close from Friday, except for hotel restaurants catering to residents.

First Minister Sturgeon described the restrictions as a “short, sharp measure” to curb the rapid rise in infections. However, the Scottish Licensed Trade Association criticized the move, calling the guidelines a “shambles” in a tweet on Friday.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson may introduce stricter measures in parts of England, especially in the north, where COVID-19 cases are rapidly increasing.

A 10 p.m. curfew for pubs and restaurants has been in place across England since late last month. Additionally, the government has prohibited gatherings of more than six people in social settings.

Dr. Julian Tang, an honorary associate professor in respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, explained to the UK’s Science Media Centre that although measures like the 10 p.m. curfew may seem arbitrary, they aim to limit people’s interactions.

He clarified that the curfew doesn’t imply the virus stops spreading after 10 p.m., but rather it encourages people to disperse earlier, thereby reducing the number of contacts and potential spreaders.

For the curfew to be effective, Dr. Tang emphasized, it’s crucial that people don’t continue socializing in supermarkets or private homes after leaving the pubs. Instead, they should go home in a socially distanced manner to minimize further transmission.

Tang emphasized the need to allow enough time for the restrictions to take effect, noting it could take three to four weeks to evaluate their impact. However, he warned that this may prove to be too little, too late.

Given the rapid rise in Covid-19 cases, Tang expressed concern that the current, limited restrictions might not be enough to curb the spread of the virus in such a short time frame, and more drastic measures might now be necessary.

Drobac cautioned that a slow, incremental approach to restrictions could be counterproductive.

He argued that acting early is crucial because the virus spreads exponentially. The longer small, incremental steps are taken while case numbers surge, the harder it becomes to regain control over the situation.