Disneyland unlikely to reopen in the near future—here’s the reason why

It's well-known that Florida and California have taken vastly different approaches to reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic. Theme parks have felt the impact of these differences more than most businesses.

While Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida reopened this past July after four months of shutdown, Disneyland in Anaheim, California has been left waiting an additional three months for its turn—and it appears that the gates won’t be opening anytime soon.

Yesterday, California health officials finally unveiled the long-anticipated guidelines for reopening theme parks. If Disneyland had any hopes of opening in 2020, those hopes have likely been crushed by this announcement.

Barring any drastic changes, Disneyland will probably have to wait significantly longer for its Orange County location to meet the necessary metrics for reopening, possibly extending into 2021. Many other major theme parks in the state, such as Universal Hollywood, Legoland California, and Sea World San Diego, are facing similar challenges.

Here’s an overview of why we don’t anticipate Disneyland being permitted to reopen anytime soon.

Understanding California's Blueprint for a Safer Economy

To grasp the specifics of California's theme park guidelines, it’s crucial to first understand the state's overall economic reopening strategy. In August 2020, Governor Gavin Newsom introduced the Blueprint for a Safer Economy.

This plan establishes four color-coded tiers reflecting the level of virus transmission—purple (widespread risk), red (substantial risk), orange (moderate risk), and yellow (minimal risk). Counties are categorized into these tiers based on their COVID-19 case rates per 100,000 residents and their overall test positivity rates.

Recently, the state introduced a health equity metric to ensure that counties effectively test their most vulnerable populations. While this may seem like detailed information, it’s crucially connected to whether Disneyland will be able to reopen its gates—or remain closed.

As a county progresses through the tiers, more businesses are permitted to reopen, with increasing capacity limits.

For instance, when a county is in the purple tier, only outdoor dining and takeout are allowed at restaurants. Once a county transitions to the red tier, indoor dining can resume at 25% capacity. This capacity can increase to 50% when the county moves to the orange tier.

California's updated theme park guidelines

Until now, theme parks had not been included in the colored tier system, leaving these businesses without clear guidance on opening timelines and operational restrictions. The theme park guidelines released yesterday finally integrated theme parks into the colored tier framework.

The guidelines differentiate between smaller local theme parks and major players like Disneyland and Universal.

Smaller theme parks are defined as those with a maximum operating capacity of 15,000 guests. These parks can reopen outdoor attractions only when their home county reaches the orange (moderate) tier. Capacity is restricted to 25% or 500 guests, whichever is lower, and only residents of the same county are allowed entry.

On the other hand, larger theme parks must wait until their home county reaches the lowest risk yellow tier before they can reopen.

While visitors at these larger theme parks won’t be restricted by residency, capacity will be limited to 25%. Although this aligns with what Disney World is currently doing, the primary challenge for reopening Disneyland lies in the tier status of its home county.

Disneyland is situated in Orange County, which is presently classified under the red tier.

For Disneyland to reopen, Orange County must progress down not just one, but two tiers. As you can imagine, transitioning between tiers is neither quick nor simple. Counties must maintain the required metrics for two full weeks before they can move down, and they can only advance again no sooner than three weeks later. This means the absolute best-case scenario for Disneyland’s reopening could look like this:

• Tuesday, October 27: OC posts figures that meet the orange tier criteria
• Tuesday, November 10: OC transitions to the orange tier and begins posting numbers to qualify for the yellow tier
• Tuesday, December 1: OC can advance to the yellow tier

However, this is merely a theoretical perfect-case timeline that assumes case numbers can decrease rapidly.

Considering real-world circumstances, when might Disneyland actually reopen?

Even in the best realistic scenario, a reopening in 2020 seems almost impossible given yesterday’s announcements. Additionally, Disney has consistently indicated that it will likely require several weeks after receiving clearance to reopen in order to bring back and retrain cast members.

Ultimately, all of this hinges on Orange County's ability to lower its COVID-19 numbers. Unfortunately, the latest statistics from earlier this week indicate an upward trend. Residents and businesses in Orange County will need to collaborate and significantly enhance their efforts to bring the numbers down sufficiently for large theme parks to reopen.

In practical terms, very few counties in California have been able to manage COVID cases well enough to reach the yellow tier.

Until just this week, only rural and less populated counties had achieved this status. San Francisco County recently became the first urban county to transition to the yellow tier. However, San Francisco's situation is distinct due to its size, wealth, and demographic factors.

Whether other larger urban counties can replicate San Francisco's achievement before a vaccine is broadly available remains uncertain. Orange County's Public Health Officer, Clayton Chau, has publicly stated that he believes his county may struggle to meet this tier requirement until summer 2021.

Reactions to the theme park guidelines

As expected, Disney has not taken these guidelines lightly.

In recent weeks, Disney has started to openly challenge the state. Josh D'Amaro, Chairman of Disney Parks, Experiences & Products, partially attributed the company’s recent layoffs of 28,000 employees to the economic uncertainty caused by California's inaction on lifting restrictions for Disneyland. Shortly after, on October 1, Bob Iger, Chairman of the Walt Disney Company, stepped down from Governor Newsom's coronavirus task force. The relationship between the Governor's office and Disney officials has been worsening for some time.

Disney's response to the new California theme park guidelines has been similarly critical.

Disneyland's president, Ken Potrock, labeled the state's stance as unfeasible and detrimental to the region's economy, stating:

Disneyland has several allies who share its critical stance toward these new guidelines. Just a day before the theme park guidelines were unveiled, Disneyland's major unions publicly expressed their support for reopening under the orange tier.

California's theme parks have united to release a joint statement from the California Attractions and Parks Association, alongside individual statements from Disneyland, Cedar Fair (operator of California's Great America, Knott's Berry Farm, and Gilroy Gardens), Six Flags Magic Mountain, and Legoland California. The executive director of the organization remarked:

Officials from Anaheim and Orange County have also joined the chorus of disappointment and concern from these theme parks, mainly due to the increased economic uncertainty this decision poses for local businesses and residents.

Anaheim's Mayor reiterated the unions' preference for reopening in the orange tier:

What lies ahead for Disneyland and California's theme parks?

With both sides firmly entrenched, it appears this matter is far from resolved. The likelihood of further negotiations between Disneyland and state officials in the near future remains highly uncertain.

Many are questioning if Disney and other theme parks might pursue legal action against the Governor. Several businesses in different sectors have already initiated lawsuits challenging the fairness and constitutionality of the state's reopening strategy.

While this announcement may disappoint potential Disneyland visitors eager to wear their face masks and return to the "Happiest Place on Earth," countless individuals dependent on Disneyland's operations now face an uncertain future.

For anyone in the U.S. seeking a Disney experience in 2020, Disney World in Florida appears to be the sole option available.